Goldman earnings will direct Europe and US opening today

21 January 2010 at 08:30 GMT+0

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Daily Trading Stance

Some good figures from China, showing the strongest GDP growth since 2007 – 10.7% growth. That should be supporting risky trades today.
Commodities and AUD are likely to benefit from the China story, but additional USD strength could cap the upside.
EURUSD trading solidly below its 200 DMA and the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement from the March bottom. Short-term retracement might go all the way to 1.38 (50% Fibo level).
Watch out for Leading Indicators today.

Calendar

Economic Data Releases
Country	Time (GMT)	Name	Saxo	Consensus	Prior
GE	08:30	PMI Manuf. / Services (JAN)		53.8 / 51.9	53.6 / 51.6
US	13:30	Initial / Continuing Jobless Claims		440K / 4,598K	444K / 4,596K
US	15:00	Leading Indicators MoM (DEC)		0.7%	0.9%

Earnings Releases

Country

Time (GMT) (G(GMT)(GMT)

Name

EPS exp.

EPS prior

Comment

US

13:00

Goldman Sachs

5.178

5.250

US

Aft-Mkt

American Express

0.569

0.440

US

Aft-Mkt

Google

6.439

5.13

FX

FX

Daily stance

Comment

EURUSD

0/-

Sell into rebound to 1.4150 for a test of 1.40. Stop abv 1.4210

USDJPY

0/+

Buy dips to 91.35 for a rebound to 92.0, stop below 90.75

EURJPY

0/-

Res seen at 129.50. sell there for retracement back to 128.50. Stop abv 129.85

GBPUSD

0/-

Sell rebound to 1.63, stop abv 1.6345 target 1.6240

AUDUSD

0/-

Seen capped at 0.9170. Sell there for 0.9040, stop abv 0.9215

FX Options

FX-Options

Comment

EURUSD

Risk reversals are still suggesting a lower spot. With gamma still better bid than the start of the week, the 1w covers the FOMC and 2w the ECB.

USDJPY

Vols mostly unchanged and as spot grinds higher, sub 1mth area remains offered. Likely to see spot steadily higher as risk reversals suggest less demand for JPY calls.

AUDUSD

Vols eased up in Asia compared to levels seen yesterday but still remains firm. Gamma is soft as spot moves back above 9100. Should see vols under pressure when we get to 9200.

Equities

Equities

Daily stance

Comment

DAX

0/+

Buy on dips towards 5849 targeting 5885. S/L below 5834.

FTSE

0/+

Buy on dips towards 5439 targeting 5470. S/L below 5420.

S&P500

0/+

Buy on dips towards 1138 targeting 1145. S/L below 1135.

NASDAQ100

0/+

DJIA

0/+

Futures

Commodities

Daily Stance

Comment

Gold

0/-

Sell into any rebound to 1,120, stop abv 1,132, target 1,100

Silver

0

Consolidation abv 21- and 55-day MA 17.87-91. Await next rally to sell into

Oil (CLH0)

0

Look for further consolidation abv 77.30 suppt. Suggested range 77.30 -78.30

Previous Three-day weekend in the US, makes for a quiet day Next Sell on rallies stance on worries of further regulation

Comments

Related articles: Look for US GDP today; Watch out for US housing data today; Look for earnings from JPMorgan and US Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization; Bank of England minutes the main event today; US Existing Home sales may surprise to the upside and lead equities higher

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Earnings Releases
Country	Time (GMT) (G(GMT)(GMT)	Name	EPS exp.	EPS prior	Comment
US	13:00	Goldman Sachs	5.178	5.250
US	Aft-Mkt	American Express	0.569	0.440
US	Aft-Mkt	Google	6.439	5.13

FX	Daily stance	Comment
EURUSD	0/-	Sell into rebound to 1.4150 for a test of 1.40. Stop abv 1.4210
USDJPY	0/+	Buy dips to 91.35 for a rebound to 92.0, stop below 90.75
EURJPY	0/-	Res seen at 129.50. sell there for retracement back to 128.50. Stop abv 129.85
GBPUSD	0/-	Sell rebound to 1.63, stop abv 1.6345 target 1.6240
AUDUSD	0/-	Seen capped at 0.9170. Sell there for 0.9040, stop abv 0.9215

FX-Options	Comment
EURUSD	Risk reversals are still suggesting a lower spot. With gamma still better bid than the start of the week, the 1w covers the FOMC and 2w the ECB.
USDJPY	Vols mostly unchanged and as spot grinds higher, sub 1mth area remains offered. Likely to see spot steadily higher as risk reversals suggest less demand for JPY calls.
AUDUSD	Vols eased up in Asia compared to levels seen yesterday but still remains firm. Gamma is soft as spot moves back above 9100. Should see vols under pressure when we get to 9200.

Equities	Daily stance	Comment
DAX	0/+	Buy on dips towards 5849 targeting 5885. S/L below 5834.
FTSE	0/+	Buy on dips towards 5439 targeting 5470. S/L below 5420.
S&P500	0/+	Buy on dips towards 1138 targeting 1145. S/L below 1135.
NASDAQ100	0/+
DJIA	0/+

Commodities	Daily Stance	Comment
Gold	0/-	Sell into any rebound to 1,120, stop abv 1,132, target 1,100
Silver	0	Consolidation abv 21- and 55-day MA 17.87-91. Await next rally to sell into
Oil (CLH0)	0	Look for further consolidation abv 77.30 suppt. Suggested range 77.30 -78.30

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Goldman earnings will direct Europe and US opening today

Daily Trading Stance

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