G10 Currency Charts Update

Today we update our charts of the G10 currencies against evenly weighted baskets of their peers, as this can provide interesting perspectives on relative strength in the current environment.

Those familiar with our FX Outlooks, like the one recently published, will recall the following charts, which we've updated with data through this morning. All charts are based on data from Bloomberg.

EUR
Funny that the currency receiving all the focus of late and with record skew in its options is actually the currency showing the least volatility of late as the market awaits further developments. Risk of further downside if the ECB printing presses are opened up, or relative stability due to the relief that a Euro Zone break up is put off to a later day?


USD
The greenback is enjoying the risk off environment as we’ve come to expect it to – but can it only thrive on general malaise? Key resistance coming


JPY
Despite the MoF’s latest intervention of record intensity, the JPY has settled back to the stronger side of the range against the USD and back toward it strongest levels for the cycle against the basket of the rest of the G10.


GBP
Certainly appears that the pound only rallies by default whenever things start to look relatively even worse elsewhere.


CHF
Things relatively quiet after the initial massive push to turn back the aggravated strengthening path. This could embolden the SNB to act again, though one might imagine the SNB would prefer to hold fire until there is more visibility on the EU’s future.


AUD
Is falling again after the third rebound in recent months. Will be a prominent victim if current risk off environment continues, particularly if commodities are heavily sold off in the bargain.


CAD
CAD has been a middle of the road currency for quite a time and may continue to weakly follow the USD’s trajectory in some of the crosses because of exposure to US economy, though it is likely to remain a pro-cyclical currency


NZD
NZD has been knocked off its pedestal again as the prospects for RBNZ tightening have sharply faded over the last month and due to the risk off environment. There is considerable room for further movement to the downside.


SEK
The krona is vulnerable to Euro Zone weakness as its economy is levered via sizable exports to the Euro Zone economy. Some worrying house price data recently suggests Swedish housing bubble is at risk of unwinding. Further weakness in short to medium term a risk for this normally pro-cyclical currency. 


NOK
NOK has been going nowhere in a hurry lately. It’s exposure to oil markets has traditionally been a huge factor for good reason, but in an era of sovereign debt stresses, it shouldn’t be allowed to get too weak relative to its major peers due to its unmatched balance sheet.