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3 numbers to watch - Macro analysis on the day’s biggest scheduled economic events

Focus on the US banking sector

Filed in: 3 numbers to watch
20 January 2010 at 9:33 GMT

Daily Trading Stance

  • The weekly confidence report from the US was extremely poor (-49 vs. -44 exp. and -47 prior) and we are now closing in on the lowest ever reading of -54. The homebuilder survey (NAHB) was also disappointing (15 vs. 17 exp. and 16 prior) and could serve as an early warning of things to come today when Housing Starts are released.
  • PPI is also out today and we are in line with consensus. Low energy prices appear to have done enough to ensure a flat reading.
  • Watch out for Bank of England Minutes at 09:30 (GMT), especially in light of the recent development in UK CPI.
  • Earnings releases today include several large players in the US banking sector.

Calendar

Country

Time (GMT)

Name

Saxo

Consensus

Prior

UK

09:30

Jobless Claims Change (DEC)

 

-4.6K

-6.3K

US

13:30

PPI / Core PPI MoM (DEC)

-0.1% / 0.1%

0.0% / 0.1%

1.8% / 0.5%

US

13:30

Housing Starts / Building Permits (DEC)

 

572K / 580K

574K / 589K

 

FX

EURUSD

0/-

1.4250 firm res. Sell rallies, target 1.4055, stop abv 1.4330.

USDJPY

0/+

Buy dips to 91.00 for a rebound to 92.0, stop below 90.70.

EURJPY

0/-

Sell any rebound up to 130.0 for a push to 128.80, stop abv 130.50.

GBPUSD

0/-

Sell into short-squeeze up to 1.6345, stop abv 1.6385 target 1.6240.

AUDUSD

0/-

Seen capped at 0.92. Sell there for 0.9080, stop abv 0.9250.

 

Equities

DAX

0/-

Sell on rallies towards 5600 and target 5940. Stop above 6030.

FTSE

0/-

Sell at the break of 5490 and target 5452. Stop above 5505.

S&P500

0/-

Sell on rallies towards 1155 and target 1145. Stop above 1158.

NASDAQ100

0/-

 

DJIA

0/-

 

 

FX-Options

EURUSD

Vols are paid in Asia as spot moves below 1.42. 1m traded to 10.5 and turns bid up from 10.2 previously in NY. Could see sellers return once spot reverses the move in Asia.

USDJPY

Front end vols get sold as Yen remained sidelined on this dollar move. 1w Tk cut is now 9.5 from down from 10.75 yesterday but partly because it is pre-FOMC.

AUDUSD

Gamma turns bid in a scramble to buy vols as spot drops to 9150 lows. There’s still sellers capping back end vega but front end will likely see strong demand.

 

Futures

Gold

0/-

Still sell rallies to 1,135-1,138 window, stop abv 1,143, target 1,125 still.

Silver

0/-

Sell any rebound back to 18.70 for 18.40 target, stop abv 18.85.

Oil (CLH0)

0/-

Sell into rallies to 78.90 for retracement back to 77.75. Stop abv 79.50.

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