Consensus is looking for ECB to cut rate to 50 bps but we think it will be a close call with a 50/50 chance of ECB taking the rate down. It is also likely that new LTRO with long duration will be announced. Regarding the bond purchase programme we think the amount of details will continue to be limited as the fight with the Bundesbank is not over. The key is what the ECB thinks is strict conditionality compared to the Bundesbank’s interpretation. The German Constitutional Court decision about the ESM next Wednesday is of course also adding to the probability that Draghi will not be very specific about the eventual bond purchase programme.