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3 numbers to watch - Macro analysis on the day’s biggest scheduled economic events

Big company earnings will dominate today

Filed in: 3 numbers to watch
19 January 2010 at 8:24 GMT

Daily Trading Stance

 

  • China saw an increase in its one-year bill yield of 8bps for the second week in a row in an attempt to prevent possible bubbles from forming. The financing cost is, in other words, being raised to drain liquidity from the system.
  •  Investor confidence has been on the wane in Germany the last couple of months and we could see another drop in confidence today. The German economy does not seem to be quite as robust as the Q3 GDP report indicated.
  • Watch out for earnings from the US today, we have several important company announcements, including IBM and Citigroup.

 Calendar

UK

09:30

CPI / RPI MoM (DEC)

0.3% / 0.3%

0.3% / 0.3%

GE

09:30

ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) (JAN)

50.0

50.4

EC

10:00

ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) (JAN)

48.0

48.0

FX

EURUSD

0/-

Still prefer shorts to 1.4420 for a retracement back to 1.4350. Stop abv 1.4455

USDJPY

0/+

Buy dips to 90.25 for a re-test of 91.25, stop below 89.90

EURJPY

0

Consolidating lower. Suggested range 129.50 – 130.50

GBPUSD

0/+

Buy dips down to 1.6355 for a rebound back through 1.64 targeting 1.65. Stop below 1.63

AUDUSD

0/+

While holding abv 0.92 look to extend gains to 0.9325 res lvl. Below sees 0.9180, poss 0.9130

 

Equities

DAX

0/-

Sell on rallies towards 5930 and target 5900. Stop above 5942.

FTSE

0/-

Sell on rallies towards 5500 and target 5467. Stop above 5518.

S&P500

0/-

Sell on rallies towards 1140 and target 1132. Stop above 1143.

NASDAQ100

0/-

 

DJIA

0/-

 

 

FX-Options

EURUSD

Vols largely unchanged with gamma continuing to be suppressed. Little flow info in the market due to the US holidays. The range around 1.44 is likely to prevail.

USDJPY

Front end is starting to see some decent buying interest and with spot threatening to break under 9000, it is possible we get a scramble to cover short gamma on the downside.

AUDUSD

Gamma is offered from the opening. First week of Feb sees a number of event risk with RBA and nonfarm payrolls but everything else looks offered as spot languishes in range

 

Futures

Gold

0/-

Sell uptick to 1,139-1,140 window  for a re-test of 1,125, stop abv 1,147.

Silver

0/-

Sell break below 18.70 for 18.45 target, stop abv 18.85.

Oil (CLG0)

0/-

Sell into rallies to 78.75 for retracement back to 78.0. Stop abv 79.0.

 

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