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3 numbers to watch - Macro analysis on the day’s biggest scheduled economic events

Bernanke's comments on the US economy sent dollar lower

Filed in: 3 numbers to watch
08 December 2009 at 9:29 GMT

Daily Trading Stance

  • US Consumer Credit still dropping, but less than expected, which should be USD positive, but Bernanke’s comments yesterday were decidedly bearish (“economy facing formidable headwinds” and “inflation remains subdued”), so the USD went lower. It is again flirting with the 55 DMA in the DXY and EURUSD. Still, there is hope for USD bulls, but only below 1.4970 in EURUSD.
  • Stocks were also hurt by the Bernanke comments and the “old correlation” (negative btw USD and stocks) was reinstating itself.

Calendar

Economic Data Releases

 

Country

Time (GMT)

Name

Saxo

Consensus

Prior

UK

09:30

Industrial Production MoM (OCT)

 

0.5%

1.6%

GE

11:00

Industrial Production MoM (OCT)

 

1.0%

2.7%

CA

14:00

Bank of Canada Rate

0.25%

0.25%

0.25%

 

FX

FX

Daily stance

Comment

EURUSD

0/-

Sell at the break of 1.4820 and target 1.4760. Stop above 1.4850.

USDJPY

0/+

Buy on dips towards 88.51 and target 89.60. Stop below 87.80.

EURJPY

0/-

Sell at the break of 131.60 and target 130.75. Stop above 132.

GBPUSD

0/-

Sell on rallies towards 1.64 and target 1.6270. Stop above 1.6450.

USDCAD

0/+

Buy on dips towards 1.05 and target 1.06. Stop below 1.0450.

 FX Options

FX-Options

Comment

EURUSD

Front end vols slip lower as spot continues to trade in a range. Back end risk reversals are seeing better bids as spot has not quite retraced from last week’s levels.

USDJPY

Curve turns bid as spot trades under 8900 levels. 2-3m upside strikes are seeing a bit of bargain hunting. Should spot break below 8800, vols have more room to spike.

AUDUSD

Vols generally softer this morning in Asia. There is still noted buying of low delta upside strikes for Jan-Feb area and also over FOMC rate decision next week.

 

Equities

Equities

Daily stance

Comment

DAX

0/-

Sell on rallies towards 5780 targeting 5730. S/L above 5800.

FTSE

0/-

Sell on rallies towards 5310 targeting 5260. S/L above 5333.

S&P500

0/-

Sell at the break of 1098 targeting 1089. S/L above 1104.

NASDAQ100

0/-

Sell at the break of 1778 targeting 1765. S/L above 1785.

DJIA

0/-

 

Futures

Commodities

Daily Stance

Comment

Gold

0/+

Buy at the break of 1171 and target 1191. Stop below 1165.

Silver

0/-

Sell at the break of 17.85 and target 17.50. Stop above 18.00.

Oil (CLF0)

0/+

Buy at the break of 74.50 and target 76.00. Stop below 73.80.

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Topics

This post appears under the following topics...

  1. GBPUSD
  2. EURJPY
  3. forex
  4. AUDUSD
  5. macro
  6. FX Options
  7. commodities
  8. FTSE100
  9. USDCAD
  10. equities
  11. USDJPY
  12. gold
  13. silver
  14. DAX
  15. EURUSD
  16. DJI