Bank of England minutes the main event today
[HEAT]
23 December 2009 at 8:02 GMT
Daily Trading Stance
- The third estimate of Q3 US GDP was revised down to 2.2% vs. Saxo/consensus of 2.7%/2.8%. The main drivers behind the change in the growth rate were non-residential construction, inventories, and net exports. The report also indicates that private consumption was driven to an even large degree by Cash for Clunkers than estimated in earlier reports as motor vehicle output contributed roughly 73% of total private consumption contribution.
- Existing Home Sales surprised even more to the upside than we expected with sales growing 7.4%. New Home Sales are out today, and we expect a flat number.
- Watch out for Bank of England minutes today at 09:30.
Calendar
| Economic Data Releases | |
| Country | Time (GMT) | Name | Saxo | Consensus | Prior |
| US | 13:30 | Personal Income / Spending MoM (NOV) | 0.3% / 0.6% | 0.5% / 0.7% | 0.2% / 0.7% |
| US | 15:00 | New Home Sales Unit / MoM (NOV) | 430K / 0.1% | 438K / 1.7% | 430K / 6.2% |
| US | 15:00 | U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence (DEC) | | 73.8 | 73.4 |
FX
| FX | Daily stance | Comment |
| EURUSD | 0 | Likely ranging 1.4225-1.4300. Watch 200-day MA suppt at 1.4195 below |
| USDJPY | 0 | While holding abv 91.50 suppt seen trading 91.50-92.00. Below risks 91.20 |
| EURJPY | 0 | Ranging activity. 130.25 – 131.0 suggested parameters |
| GBPUSD | 0 | Look to test 1.5920 lows but seen holding for 1.5920 -1.600 range |
| AUDUSD | 0 | Consolidation within established 0.8740-0.8780 range |
FX Options
| FX-Options | Comment |
| EURUSD | Very little has changed in EUR vols, spot ranges are contained and middle to back end vols are likely to stay firm. |
| USDJPY | Yen vols continue to see bids through the back end of the curve. 1Y is now 15.2 bid which is just slightly firmer from yesterday. |
| AUDUSD | Short date strikes still continues to see a few offers but curve is generally holding up though flows are light and spot has been rangebound in Asia. |
Equities
| Equities | Daily stance | Comment |
| DAX | 0/+ | Buy around 5960 targeting 6000. S/L below 5940. |
| FTSE | 0/+ | Buy around 5340 targeting 5360. S/L below 5330. |
| S&P500 | 0/+ | Buy around 1118 targeting 1122. S/L below 1116. |
| NASDAQ100 | 0/+ | |
| DJIA | 0/+ | |
Futures
| Commodities | Daily Stance | Comment |
| Gold | 0 | Likely ranging 1,075-1,090 but downside looks vulnerable. Prefer to play from short side. |
| Silver | 0/- | Break abv 17.0 seen limited to 17.10. Sell there for test of 16.85, stop abv 17.15. |
| Oil (CLG0) | 0 | Seen ranging 74.0 - 75.0 but prefer to sell rallies, stop abv 75.25. |
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