Apple: What are analysts saying about its stock after iPhone5?

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) is usually one of the most talked-about stocks, and the chatter around it has been particularly loud since the launch of the iPhone 5 earlier this month.

As usual, there were queues of eager buyers and upgraders outside Apple stores, and the phone was sold out quicker than normal. But is the reason very high demand or just lack of supply? Apple has said that 5m units were sold, which was 25 percent higher than for the 4S model, but less than the 8m analysts had targeted.

I looked at changes to analyst consensus estimates on Apple from the day before the iPhone5 launch and to yesterday September 25th. You can see the results in Table 1 below. The launch must have been seen as better than expected, as the forecasts for expected earnings have increased on all five quarters I have in the sample, apart from a minor decline in March 2013.

Analysts expect an immediate effect, as their forecasts for sales of the iPhone specifically have been increased by USD1.4bn over the 12 days mentioned above. Over the five quarters we can see ahead, their iPhone sales estimates have increased by USD2.7bn. All in all, analysts have taken the launch positively, and this should underpin the valuation at the moment.

The risk short term is the persistent talk of lack of components. If this is true and potential buyers are called to wait a long time before they can get their iPhone5, then there is a much higher risk this time that users will choose another product instead.  Apple is no longer in the product lead, as Samsung and Nokia have excellent products with strong appeal to users. They are ready to provide an alternative phone while you wait in line for the iPhone5.