3 numbers to watch: US Chicago Fed, New Home Sales, Dallas Fed

The US is the sole provider of data today with New Home Sales among the three numbers worth watching. The 'GDP proxy' Chicago Fed National Activity Index will also be released today as will the Dallas region's manufacturing index. As we commented on in last week's Government Bond Auctions release, France is also set for the sale of 3-, 6- and 12-month bills at 13:00 GMT.

• May US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (12:30) to point to below-trend growth: The index, which can be used as a monthly proxy for GDP as it relies on 85 economic indicators, is expected to go below zero (zero being trend growth) in May due to weakness in several areas of the US economy such as the labour market (Nonfarm Payrolls only printed 69,000) and production (Industrial Production declined 0.1% m/m). Consensus looks for a reading of -0.4 after April's +0.11, which would be the second negative reading in just three months, dragging the 3-month average below zero.

• May US New Home Sales (14:00) to rise again: The US housing sector is (very) slowly but surely improving as home equity rises and debt is reduced to more manageable levels. This is also reflected in New Home Sales, which are expected to show a gain of 0.9% m/m in May after April's 3.3% gain. While Housing Starts and Building Permits continue to point to more upside for sale,s it will be a drawn out affair which is bound to last years, not just quarters or even months.

• Jun. US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (14:30) to contract again: The regional Fed surveys have generally disappointed in late spring-early summer, with the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook the attention grabber - it plummeted to -16.6 in June from -5.8 a month ago. It is the lowest level since last summer's recession scare (-22.7 in August). Consensus looks for the Dallas Fed to also show a contraction, albeit a less severe one, at -1 after last month's -5.1.