3 numbers to watch: UK mortgages,EZ confidence,Pending Home Sales

With most of this week's big indicators crammed into the last two days of the work week, we get to catch our breath a bit today before the action really unfolds. There are still reports worthy of attention, however, including Mortgage Approvals from the UK, various confidence measures from the Eurozone and Pending Home Sales from the US, so let us get right to it...

• Apr. UK Mortgage Approvals (08:30) to inch higher? The housing bubble and subsequent crash in the UK still looms large over the economy, with the sector acting as a sizable drag on activity. Mortgage Approvals are slowly improving, but remain far below the levels of the noughties. That said, other indicators, notably the PMI Construction Index, have printed nothing but above-50 numbers indicating expansion, since December 2010 (which was itself only a one month detour below 50 after 9 consecutive +50 readings). Consensus looks for a more or less unchanged reading in today's April report of 50,100 from 49,900 in March.

• May Eurozone confidence measures (09:00): A string of confidence measures will be released today covering May including the finalised consumer confidence number and the Business Climate Indicator, the latter of which is a reasonably monthly proxy of GDP growth. Confidence at the consumer level surprisingly beat expectations in the initial May report printing -19.3 vs. -20.5 expected and -19.9 prior. Turning to the Business Climate Indicator, it is expected to decline to -0.67 from -0.52. A reading of -0.67 is historically consistent with quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of 0.1%.

• Apr. US Pending Home Sales (14:00) to stay flat? This short-term, meaning 1-2 months, leading indicator of Existing Home Sales has risen robustly in the first three months of the year, up 3.9% q/q and 10.3% y/y (3-month moving average) as the US housing market is slowly finding its feet. The equivalent growth rates for Existing Home Sales are 2.1% and 8% point perhaps to further gains in the next (May) addition of the Existing Home Sales report. Consensus sees Pending Home Sales flat month-on-month, which translates into 22% y/y from 10.8% prior.

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