3 Numbers to Watch: EZ Investor Conf, US Cons Credit & UK Housing

Last week’s poor US jobs figures have reignited talk about quantitative easing ahead of the FOMC meeting on Thursday. The US economy added just 96,000 workers in August, compared to an increase of 141,000 in July, although the unemployment rate did fall to 8.1%. This may give the Fed an incentive to introduce more economic stimulus in the future. It is also bad news for US president Barack Obama, who is attempting to win re-election while unemployment has run above 8% for the last 43 months, one of the worst records for an incumbent president.

Today is a slow day for economic data releases across the US and Europe. German market research firm Sentix is due to release its report on investor confidence in the Eurozone. Meanwhile, in the US we are waiting for the latest figures on consumer credit. We round off the day with the UK RICS House Prices Balance for August.

Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence (08:30 GMT) Business conditions across the Eurozone’s 17-member currency bloc are expected to deteriorate further in September, as the banking and debt crisis that has engulfed the region deepens further. The Sentix investor confidence index is forecast to decline from -30.3 in August to -30.5 for September, and lower than the -29.6 recorded in July. A measure of -100 gives an extremely poor outlook for the economy while 100 is regarded as an extremely positively outlook. This will be the first gauge of investor sentiment since the European Central Bank announced plans to launch a new bond-buying programme, which was viewed positively by markets at the time.

US Consumer Credit (19:00 GMT) Consumer credit is expected to rise in July after recording strong retail and motor vehicles sales for the month. The amount of outstanding credit is forecast to grow by USD 9.8 billion for the month, up from USD 6.8 billion in June, according a consensus of analysts. However, this remains well below the USD 16.7 billion in consumer credit reported for May. US retail sales jumped unexpectedly in July, by 0.8%, due to lower fuel prices and modest employment growth. Meanwhile, the US’s three big automakers – General Motors, Ford and Chrysler – reported stronger than expected sales last month. A decline in new student loans could, however, lower the overall number of outstanding loans for the month.

UK RICS House Price Balance (23:01 GMT) House prices in the UK are expected to edge slightly higher for August, but the continued weakness in the economy is likely to slow output in the housing market for some time still. The RICS House Price Balance is forecast to rise from -24 in July to -23 for the month, according to analysts’ estimates. This means the difference between the percentage of surveyors reporting price falls, and those reporting price rises, is expected to be 23 percentage points in August. The firmer house prices are likely to due the shortage of new homes in the UK, in particular in the London area.

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