3 Numbers to Watch: Bernanke speech, CA Q2 GDP & DE Retail Sales

So the big day has finally arrived. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke is scheduled to kick off the Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole with a speech at 1400 GMT, followed by talks from the Bank of England’s Andrew Haldane and Adam Posen at 1555 and 1710, respectively. Then it’s on to IMF chief Christine Lagarde who will speak at around 1830. Elsewhere in the world, Canada is set to release GDP data for Q2 and German retail sales are also due out early in the European session.

Bernanke’s speech at Jackson Hole (1400 GMT) The ECB’s absence from the Economic Policy Symposium means today is all about the Federal Reserve and whether Ben Bernanke will play his next hand. As Saxo Bank's chief economist Steen Jakobsen mentioned in his posts on Tuesday and Thursday, Bernanke may extend the language on low rates until 2015, but will probably leave full blown QE until next year. The title of the speech: Monetary Policy Since the Crisis, gives the impression it will be a long-winded historical analysis of the Fed policy, rather than a the more forward-looking discussion markets want to hear. But some market reaction is due, whether Bernanke delivers some signals or not, so make sure you are tuned in for what is sure to be an eventful day.

Canada Q2 GDP (1230 GMT) The Canadian economy is expected to have expanded in the second quarter of 2012, but at a slower pace, as a strong Canadian dollar continues to restrict the country’s trade competitiveness. GDP for Q2 is forecast to have increased by 1.6% in Q2, according to analysts’ estimates. This is down from 1.8% in the previous quarter and below the Bank of Canada’s forecasts, which last month predicted the country would sustain its current rate of growth. USDCAD has fallen from a peak of 1.0411 in early June to its current levels of 0.9924. Meanwhile, the country’s current account deficit rose sharply to C$16 billion in the second quarter, well above the CAD 10.3 billion initially forecast by analysts.

German Retail Sales (0600 GMT) Retail sales in Germany are expected to pick up in July ending a run of three consecutive months of declines. The retail sector reported a 0.1% contraction in sales growth for June, following equally weak numbers in May and April. Consumer sentiment in Germany has held up fairly well considering the ongoing banking and debt crisis in the Eurozone. On Tuesday, the GfK’s German Consumer Confidence Survey measure for August came in better than expected at 5.9 points, unchanged from July, despite analysts’ initial forecasts showing a fall for the month.

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