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17 December 2009

Saxo Bank Releases 'Outrageous Claims' for 2010

Andrew Arnold, Trading Floor Editor

Saxo Bank has today released its annual "Outrageous Claims", this year predicting devaluation of the CNY, the emergence of a third political party in the US, a massive fall in the price of sugar, a positive US trade balance for the first time since the 1975 oil crisis, and that the US Social Security Trust Fund will go bust.

01 December 2009

CMBS delinquencies on the rise, again

Robin Bagger-Sjöbäck, Research Analyst

Realpoint (credit-rating agency) research reported the first decline in delinquent unpaid balance for commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) in July this year. Unfortunately, it seems to have been a one-of-a-kind event, at least for this year.

06 November 2009

Unemployment rate leaps to the highest point in 26 years

Mads Koefoed, Macro Strategist, Saxo Bank

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has today released their October report for the labour market. There are some bits for both bulls and bears in the release, but overall we believe it to be a poor report. The change in payrolls continues to decline, but the unemployment rate is now over the psychologically important 10% level.

05 November 2009

Buenos Dias to Trading Floor’s Spanish site

Trading Floor has been joined by a Spanish language sister site www.SaladeInversion.es. SaladeInversion has been created to provide investors in Spain and Latin America with quality content from financial analysts, opinion leaders and leading media. It is an easy way for investors to stay updated with trading tips and charts to help find appropriate strategies. It also offers a constantly updated news channel from leading media providers and brokers.

05 November 2009

Stimulus and interest rates – where are we heading from here?

Robin Bagger-Sjöbäck, Research Analyst

UK: So far, the Bank of England (BoE) has devoted some £175 billion to the Asset Purchase Facility program, mainly intended to buy gilts. As of now, £174.8 billion has been spent (£172.8 billion on gilts, equivalent to 13% of GDP) and expectations for the BoE minutes this Thursday (Nov 5th) are that the program will be extended yet again, probably with another £50 billion. We believe such an extension will steady gilt yields and flatten out the yield curve, while sterling ought to lose some ground again.