About Futures Trading

IMF will take the leading role in a possible Greek bailout

Fri, 26 Mar 2010 07:21:00 GMT

New agreement btw Germany and rest of EU: combined IMF and EU aid to Greece would be allowed, if unanimous decision in E-Z countries.

Obama’s health care bill passed yesterday

Mon, 22 Mar 2010 07:31:00 GMT

The US House passed Obama’s Health Care bill yesterday and the USD strengthened. EURUSD stopped short of 1.35 – key level.

Greece to turn to IMF?

Thu, 18 Mar 2010 07:21:00 GMT

Germany poured some cold water on risk sentiment with the remark that Greece should go to the IMF instead of the EU.

With Industrial Production surprising on the upside, we are buying on dips

Mon, 15 Mar 2010 07:31:00 GMT

Credit spreads are continuing to narrow and the VIX is pushing for new lows. Corporate CDS prices are also lower and the S&P500 is making new highs.

1150-level broken in S&P 500, we see continuing risk appetite

Fri, 12 Mar 2010 07:30:00 GMT

If we close above 1150 today in S&P 500 and open higher on Monday we could have a strong signal for further strength in the near future with our sight set on the 1200 mark.

Still looking for 1150 today in S&P 500

Thu, 11 Mar 2010 07:24:00 GMT

A whole host of figures from China: New Yuan Loans moderating significantly (but higher than expected) at 700B. Retail Sales strong, but Industrial Production a lot weaker than expected and AUD and ASX200 are down with commodities under pressure as well.

NFP is out at 13.30 GMT, do the blizzards matter?

Fri, 05 Mar 2010 07:22:00 GMT

• Key risk today is the NFP and Unemployment Rate in the US. We warn our clients that both measures could show very large surprises today (due to the weather conditions and record changes in the US Labor Market Participation Rate in February).

Bullish stance, but watch out for Central Bank announcements

Thu, 04 Mar 2010 07:23:00 GMT

The EUR has bounced somewhat from the bottom and there might be more in the bounce to come, but rallies should most likely be capped around 1.3840 (trendline resistance)

Copper, not gold hit by Chile earthquake

Mon, 01 Mar 2010 12:59:00 GMT

The terrible earthquake in Chile has not had an impact on Gold, which is still blowing hot and cold in line with the dollar and the general level of risk appetite.

The main market impacted by the 8.8 magnitude earthquake that hit Chile over the weekend has been HG Copper which trades 2.5% higher at 336 after having reached 348.70 overnight.

Plenty of macro data out today, watch out for higher than expected ISM Manu.

Mon, 01 Mar 2010 07:22:00 GMT

We are bullish on risk today and buy on dips in equities.

Solid GDP figures from Asia to spur stocks

Mon, 22 Feb 2010 07:25:00 GMT

Stocks and oil went higher overnight on the back of solid GDP figures from Taiwan (9.2% YoY) and Thailand (5.8% YoY). This together with an easing of the fear that a tightening is imminent in the US is helping risky assets.

Exit phase begins as Fed hikes

Fri, 19 Feb 2010 14:26:00 GMT

The US Federal Reserve began withdrawing emergency support to the financial system by raising the discount rate. Although the move was not seen as one leading up to an imminent change in the Fed funds rate, stock markets fell and the dollar strengthened on the back of the announcement. The Fed stressed that the changes did not signal any change in the outlook for the economy but never the less this changes the psychology of the market.

Expect an improvement in the US Industrial Production out later today

Wed, 17 Feb 2010 07:25:00 GMT

The TIC Flows report yesterday showed that China sold off enough US debt in December to let Japan become the new number one holder of US debt.

Oil finds support, but going nowhere fast

Fri, 12 Feb 2010 15:04:00 GMT

The focus in financial markets stayed with Greece and the potential implications for currency and commodity markets. The fiscal debt problems that caused a flight to secure government bonds and the dollar away from commodity and equity markets still lingers as Germany made clear that they were not willing to pull out the cheque book.

Eurozone GDP, a downside surprise?

Fri, 12 Feb 2010 08:36:00 GMT

An otherwise slow week in terms of macro data ends on a busy note with the most important ones being Eurozone GDP and US Retail Sales. Vehicle Sales were weak in January recording a drop of 5%, but sales of other goods should have increased enough for overall sales to increase. The Eurozone economy is struggling and with the Germany economy recording a flat GDP for Q4 earlier today we see downside risk to the consensus estimate of 0.3%.

Risk appetite up on news that Greece will not be alone

Wed, 10 Feb 2010 08:17:00 GMT

Risky assets turned in a strong performance yesterday as rumours that a bailout plan will be put together grew stronger – even if the terms of any solution to the Greek situation are still very unclear. Today, the German Finance Minister Schaeuble is expected to outline how Greece will be supported. Also watch out for the BoE inflation report (10:30) and Fed testimony at 15:00 GMT. Considering that we are still low on other news, including macro releases, and with a solution to the Greek situation apparently edging closer we remain bullish today and buy on dips in stocks.

Nonfarm Payrolls

Fri, 05 Feb 2010 07:56:00 GMT

Today Nonfarm Payrolls are released with the added spice that the annual revision will accompany it. Estimates are all over the place ranging from -100K to 100K.

Buy breaks in equities on better than expected earnings

Thu, 04 Feb 2010 08:14:00 GMT

Risk could take a turn for the better if better than expected earnings reports continue throughout the day. Also keep an eye on German factory orders.

Commodities: risk aversity versus relative strength

Mon, 01 Feb 2010 13:20:00 GMT

The twenty most traded commodities apart from sugar all showed a negative return last week with copper and natural gas leading the rout falling by 8.8% and 10.8% respectively. The dollar rally continues and from being a rally primarily versus the Euro, it has now become broad based with the dollar index rising 4% from the mid-January low.

The dollar returns to the driving seat

Fri, 22 Jan 2010 14:00:00 GMT

China once again showed its importance as another attempt to rein in lending led to selling of commodities and a switch to perceived safety of government bonds and the dollar.

Focus switches to fundamentals as frost premium recedes

Mon, 18 Jan 2010 09:12:00 GMT

After the New Year rush to initiate long positions commodity markets ran out of steam this week. The CRB index showing a flat return after a near four percent gain during the first week of trading. The main sell off came from the grain and oilseeds followed by the energy sector. The “frost” premium that helped drive energy prices higher at the beginning of the month has begun to evaporate as forecast for milder weather combined with another rise in inventories has taken prices lower. Market moves caused by weather shocks are by nature temporary but the surge in demand has helped reduce booming inventories somewhat.

Frosty start to 2010 gives commodities a lift

Mon, 11 Jan 2010 10:25:00 GMT

Commodity markets kicked off the New Year by making strong gains as exceptionally cold weather across the Northern hemisphere gave energy and other sectors a boost. This time of year everyone from hedge funds through to the private investors get back into the markets looking for profitable investment opportunities. Given the strong performance of commodities in 2009 where the CRB index rose by 30% and investment flows into the sector rose by more than USD 60 billion it was and is expected that the sector will have another year with positive returns.

Positive stance on risk today

Mon, 11 Jan 2010 09:36:00 GMT

With risk indicators still improving, we have a positive stance of risk today. Buy on dips in stocks. The NFP report published last Friday was much worse than expected, but the shock for markets did not even last the day.

It's all about jobs today

Fri, 08 Jan 2010 08:59:00 GMT

We are bullish on the payroll number coming out later this afternoon, our estimate lands at 35K vs. consensus of 0K.

Asset allocation remains 'Outright Bullish'

Mon, 04 Jan 2010 13:03:00 GMT

The return on the Saxo Asset Allocation model for December was 2.76%. The model is still “Outright Bullish”.

Risk sentiment opening the new year

Mon, 04 Jan 2010 09:20:00 GMT

Good manufacturing numbers from China and expected solid ISM numbers from the US today will spur the risk appetite further.