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Energy and Agricultural go their Separate Ways

Mon, 16 Aug 2010 11:15:00 GMT

A deteriorating outlook for world growth following disappointing US and Chinese data sent commodities back on the slide

Commodity Update Video: Weak Dollar Drags Commodities Lower

Mon, 16 Aug 2010 09:03:00 GMT

Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen explores macroeconomic factors driving the commodity markets. Also, he looks at the Reuters CRB index that's broken some key technical indicators.

Macro impact of QE light likely insignificant

Wed, 11 Aug 2010 10:15:00 GMT

The Fed annouced yesterday that it will buy US treasuries with the principal payments from maturing mortgage-backed securities. The stock market initially cheered, but we have our reservation as to the impact on economic activity.

Watch out for macro data Friday, especially US GDP

Fri, 30 Jul 2010 07:38:00 GMT

Earnings have been better-than-expected this earnings season, but we expect the earnings surprise to be mostly priced in. Hence macro will become more important, starting with US GDP today.

Weekly Commodity Update Video: Stress Test Results Reduce Support for Gold

Wed, 28 Jul 2010 15:07:00 GMT

Video Interview: Improving broad sentiment has been driven by the EU stress test results, US housing data and a rally for Chinese stocks.

Chinese currency move fails to ignite the market

Fri, 25 Jun 2010 14:36:00 GMT

Commodity prices had a mixed week, helped early on by renminbi appreciation but later struggling as focus once again shifted to the fragile global economic recovery.

Commodities benefits from calmer market conditions

Mon, 21 Jun 2010 13:12:00 GMT

It has been a quiet week on the markets with short covering and position adjustments being the main theme. Record low interest rates entice investors back into stocks and commodities.

The PBoC declares renminbi flexibility

Mon, 21 Jun 2010 07:23:00 GMT

The CNY is flying after the PBoC sought for “flexibility” in the exchange rate. All things Asian and commodity related are also higher. China, however, does not want to discuss the CNY in the upcoming G20 meeting.

European bank stress tests to be published, sending equities higher

Fri, 18 Jun 2010 07:26:00 GMT

Following the central bank of Spain’s decision to publish the results of the stress tests on its banks, the EU has now followed suit.

BP slashes dividends and Spain to release bank stress tests

Thu, 17 Jun 2010 07:25:00 GMT

News overnight was mostly bearish.

Accelerating growth in Asia saves the week for commodities

Mon, 14 Jun 2010 08:02:00 GMT

The Reuters Jefferies CRB Index had a good week rising 2.8 percent but stays stuck in a range between 247 and 259. Soft commodities such as sugar and coffee both rose more than seven percent while broad based gains seen across the other sectors. Natural gas reached its initial upside target at 5.00 before running into profit taking losing one percent on the week.

Euro weakens to 2006 levels dragging commodities down with it

Mon, 07 Jun 2010 11:57:00 GMT

Commodities continue to experience mixed fortunes with natural gas back in vogue amid hot weather and expectations about an active hurricane season. Difficult financial market conditions inside the Eurozone still indicating a bumpy road ahead.

Risk reduction ruled in May

Tue, 01 Jun 2010 08:51:00 GMT

Global markets during May experienced the most difficult month since late 2008 as the European debt crisis escalated paving the way for a global rush to reduce exposure across most asset classes, including commodities. Safe-havens such as gold, the dollar and certain government bonds continued to attract interest from investors scrambling to reduce exposures in riskier assets. Economic data during the month were generally favorably but investors failed to react accordingly.

Sentiment will be the driver today in the absence of surprising macro figures

Fri, 28 May 2010 07:32:00 GMT

Unless we see some very surprising macro numbers today we cannot help but feel that sentiment will be the driver today – especially in light on yesterday’s non-event.

Naked short-selling ban enacted in Germany

Wed, 19 May 2010 07:26:00 GMT

German financial regulator BaFin decided yesterday that we didn’t have enough volatility in markets, so what do you do? You enact a naked short selling ban on gov’t bonds and ten large financial stocks.

European disease is spreading

Mon, 17 May 2010 09:18:00 GMT

Commodity markets have been suffering from the elevated level of risk aversion in the markets, with all sectors apart from gold and silver showing a negative return over the last month. The Reuters Jefferies CRB index is down more than six percent over the last month with sugar and WTI crude oil being the biggest losers.

Calamity in global markets

Fri, 07 May 2010 17:49:00 GMT

Financial markets experienced one of the most dramatic weeks in years as sovereign debt worries triggered an avalanche of risk reduction. The Euro remained under pressure all week as the market viewed the Greek bail out with scepticism and renewed selling pressure on southern European government debt and banking stocks followed. Investors seeking a safe haven from the turmoil drove ten year government bond yields in Germany down to a record low at 2.8%

More worries over PIIGS after Greece bailout, risk completely off

Wed, 05 May 2010 07:19:00 GMT

This is threatening to blow-up the E-Z in a much shorter time-span than the market anticipated only half a year ago and it more and more looks like a return of the funding crisis from the summer/fall of 2008.

Asset Allocation Model maintains 'Outright Bullish'

Tue, 04 May 2010 08:27:00 GMT

Saxo Bank’s Asset Allocation Model returned 2.12% for the month of April and maintains an “Outright Bullish Scenario”.

Daily Trading Stance - 30/04/2010

Fri, 30 Apr 2010 08:36:00 GMT

Greece has agreed to the outline of a 24 bln. EUR austerity package reducing public employees salary and increasing VAT in order to fund parts of the budget deficit. In total over 3 years these measures should reduce the deficit by 10-11 percentage points. However this is not enough for Greece to be able to service it long term debt obligations. Here a 4 percentage point surplus would be need.

Markets will most likley react positively to the news from Greece - initiating a relief rally, but todays most important market moving news will be the release of the US GDP report at 12:30 GMT.

European stocks hit hard, but US and emerging markets holding up

Thu, 29 Apr 2010 09:09:00 GMT

Volatility continues, but VIX dropped to 21.08 yesterday. High yield bonds have not recovered the sell-off, but US stocks came back somewhat. DAX and CAC hard hit, both down more than 4%, though. So far this crisis is regional in its nature and EM and US stocks are not too affected, but we doubt that EU policy makers will be ready with aid in time to calm down the PIIGS debt markets.

Watch for a crude correction if stocks go lower

Mon, 19 Apr 2010 08:42:00 GMT

After a week of sideways trading in Crude oil and lower weekly highs, there are signs that the market could be setting up for a correction. However, if the first quarter of this year is any indicator for general market direction, we need first to see stock markets move lower.

Gold dollar decoupling continues

Mon, 12 Apr 2010 10:08:00 GMT

The economic outlook outside Europe continues to improve which leaves investors somewhat confused about what theme will be the dominant theme in the near future. Greek government bond yields rose dramatically with the two year yield rising by nearly 2.5 percent in less than a week to levels not seen for 12 years. Recent data indicates that the Euro zone recovery stalled in the fourth quarter highlighting the slow return to growth in continental Europe.

Asset Allocation still 'Outright Bullish'

Tue, 06 Apr 2010 15:27:00 GMT

The Saxo Bank Asset Allocation model is still “Outright Bullish” – which translates into the following allocation:

Long 30% MSCI World
Long 5% MSCI Emerging Markets
Long 45% CRB Index
Long 10% SHY
Long 10% IBCA

IMF will take the leading role in a possible Greek bailout

Fri, 26 Mar 2010 07:21:00 GMT

New agreement btw Germany and rest of EU: combined IMF and EU aid to Greece would be allowed, if unanimous decision in E-Z countries.