About Equity Analysis

IMF will take the leading role in a possible Greek bailout

Fri, 26 Mar 2010 07:21:00 GMT

New agreement btw Germany and rest of EU: combined IMF and EU aid to Greece would be allowed, if unanimous decision in E-Z countries.

Obama’s health care bill passed yesterday

Mon, 22 Mar 2010 07:31:00 GMT

The US House passed Obama’s Health Care bill yesterday and the USD strengthened. EURUSD stopped short of 1.35 – key level.

Still looking for 1150 today in S&P 500

Thu, 11 Mar 2010 07:24:00 GMT

A whole host of figures from China: New Yuan Loans moderating significantly (but higher than expected) at 700B. Retail Sales strong, but Industrial Production a lot weaker than expected and AUD and ASX200 are down with commodities under pressure as well.

Equity Strategy Outlook: Time for caution

Mon, 08 Mar 2010 13:48:00 GMT

Equities have been range trading since October 2009 and after a test in late January/early February of the lower end of the range we are about to test the upper end. We are long until we reach 1150 (upper end of range) and from here we are sellers.

NFP is out at 13.30 GMT, do the blizzards matter?

Fri, 05 Mar 2010 07:22:00 GMT

• Key risk today is the NFP and Unemployment Rate in the US. We warn our clients that both measures could show very large surprises today (due to the weather conditions and record changes in the US Labor Market Participation Rate in February).

Bullish stance, but watch out for Central Bank announcements

Thu, 04 Mar 2010 07:23:00 GMT

The EUR has bounced somewhat from the bottom and there might be more in the bounce to come, but rallies should most likely be capped around 1.3840 (trendline resistance)

Value Investing for the long term in Greece

Tue, 02 Mar 2010 08:48:00 GMT

Greece abounds with rumours about austerity measures and a regulatory crack-down on the immense black economy in Greece. The changes in taxation of dividends make it a lot more attractive for Greeks to sell their domestically held stock holdings to establish offshore ownerships. In other words, it looks like a country-specific slow-motion panic that might threaten to evolve into a full-blown panic. And where there is panic, there are usually lots of opportunities. We have therefore screened the Greek stock market for long-term value stocks that might be getting even cheaper if more rumors or even real political action appear.

Plenty of macro data out today, watch out for higher than expected ISM Manu.

Mon, 01 Mar 2010 07:22:00 GMT

We are bullish on risk today and buy on dips in equities.

Solid GDP figures from Asia to spur stocks

Mon, 22 Feb 2010 07:25:00 GMT

Stocks and oil went higher overnight on the back of solid GDP figures from Taiwan (9.2% YoY) and Thailand (5.8% YoY). This together with an easing of the fear that a tightening is imminent in the US is helping risky assets.

Expect an improvement in the US Industrial Production out later today

Wed, 17 Feb 2010 07:25:00 GMT

The TIC Flows report yesterday showed that China sold off enough US debt in December to let Japan become the new number one holder of US debt.

Eurozone GDP, a downside surprise?

Fri, 12 Feb 2010 08:36:00 GMT

An otherwise slow week in terms of macro data ends on a busy note with the most important ones being Eurozone GDP and US Retail Sales. Vehicle Sales were weak in January recording a drop of 5%, but sales of other goods should have increased enough for overall sales to increase. The Eurozone economy is struggling and with the Germany economy recording a flat GDP for Q4 earlier today we see downside risk to the consensus estimate of 0.3%.

Buy on dips on European talks

Thu, 11 Feb 2010 08:00:00 GMT

Today, European leaders will meet (9.15 GMT) with the topics being the economy, the climate, and Haiti. However, there’s an expectation that talks on the Greek situation will take centre stage instead. The ECB is banned from helping out member countries through debt purchases, so it looks likely that a solution will involve loan guarantees from Germany and France. We expect risk appetite to continue today and remain buyers on dips.

Greece is the talk of the town as stocks take a beating in the US session

Tue, 09 Feb 2010 08:08:00 GMT

Short positions against the EUR are at record levels, while there's an expectation forming that an announcement from the EU on the Greek situation is forthcoming.

This week's earnings reports

Mon, 08 Feb 2010 09:04:00 GMT

Download a list of companies reporting Q4 earnings this week. Companies in the S&P 500 index and the Bloomberg European 500 index are included.

A quiet day on the macro side, look for earnings releases

Mon, 08 Feb 2010 08:30:00 GMT

A relatively quiet Monday follows the mixed unemployment report from Friday afternoon. Nonetheless we expect the Friday sell-off to continue, thus remain negative on risk, sell on rallies.

Companies reporting earnings this week

Wed, 03 Feb 2010 09:56:00 GMT

Companies reporting earnings this week can be downloaded as a PDF. Companies in the S&P 500 Index and the Bloomberg European 500 Index are included.

Re-election of Bernanke could spur risk appetite again

Wed, 27 Jan 2010 08:40:00 GMT

It is now more or less obvious that Bernanke will be reelected as Fed Chairman. That will be supporting risk, so we are looking for a bounce in the markets over the rest of the week. Furthermore, New Home Sales have the potential to surprise on the upside, so we recommend being long stocks and risk over the figures. Therefore we have a “buy on dips” stance for risk today – especially ahead of the FOMC Decision and Statement tonight.

Temporary retracement in risk, look for buying opportunities on dips

Mon, 25 Jan 2010 08:37:00 GMT

Obamas proposal to further regulate US banks led to Friday's sell-off in equities during the US session. It continued in Asia and Europe opened lower. But in our view this will be overshadowed by solid earnings reports.

Focus on the US banking sector

Wed, 20 Jan 2010 09:33:00 GMT

The earnings season is in full swing now and today three large banks will release their earnings reports

Big company earnings will dominate today

Tue, 19 Jan 2010 08:24:00 GMT

Citigroup, IBM, and CSX are among the US companies reporting earnings today. Also watch the ZEW sentiment figures from Germany.

Three-day weekend in the US, makes for a quiet day

Mon, 18 Jan 2010 08:05:00 GMT

With the US markets closed today for Martin Luther King Day, and nothing interesting on the macro calendar we are set for a quiet day ahead of bank reporting later in the week.

Look for earnings from JPMorgan and US Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization

Fri, 15 Jan 2010 08:35:00 GMT

Intel posted better than expected earnings yesterday and today's most earnings release is from JPMorgan. We expect JPMorgan to beat expectations.

Risk appetite increases on Australia's labour data

Thu, 14 Jan 2010 08:29:00 GMT

The market received some good news from Australia overnight with the change in employment coming in at 35.2K vs. 10.0K expected resulting in an unemployment rate of 5.5% (5.8% expected)

Today's UK industrial production report, centre of attention for European session

Wed, 13 Jan 2010 08:40:00 GMT

Increased noise in the media about hiking rates in China, while the US posted a Trade Balance deficit of $36.4 billion.

Earnings calendar for Jan 12 to Jan 24

Tue, 12 Jan 2010 14:06:00 GMT

Download the list of companies Q4 reporting earnings from 01/12-2010 to 01/24-2010. Companies in the S&P 500 Index and the Bloomberg European 500 Index are included.

Alcoa kicks off the earnings season in poor fashion

Tue, 12 Jan 2010 09:45:00 GMT

Alcoa reported worse than expected EPS yesterday, with the reported EPS of 1 cent/share 5 cents below the consensus of expectations on the Street.