About Economic Forecast

A relaxing Labor Day; perhaps...

Mon, 06 Sep 2010 08:04:00 GMT

Following a hectic week, reporting agencies must have thought that we all needed a break. At least the calendar is quite light this week with the Bank of England meeting being one of a few potential market movers.

US unemployment queue lengthens again

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 14:53:00 GMT

We expect US August Non-Farm payrolls to show a decline of 125,000 in August due in large part to dismissals among temporary Census workers.
The unemployment rate is expected to edge up to 9.6% from 9.5%.

ECB news conference likely very predictable

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 13:21:00 GMT

As expected the ECB left the main Refinance Rate unchanged at 1.0%. The only notable announcement I would expect from the post-meeting news conference would be that the ECB intends to extend full allocation at refinancing operations at least until year-end.

ISM to surprise to the upside, feed risk rally

Wed, 01 Sep 2010 09:51:00 GMT

A better-than-expected ISM number is likely to drive the relief rally further. Nevertheless, we maintain our risk-off stance as we see further deterioration in the US (and world) economy.

Weekly Macro Video: US 2Q GDP won't be pretty

Fri, 27 Aug 2010 10:50:00 GMT

Saxo Bank Macro Strategist Mads Køfød looks ahead to US economic data due Friday and next week.

Data Preview: US 2Q GDP growth to be revised down to 1.2%

Thu, 26 Aug 2010 13:53:00 GMT

We expect Friday's US GDP report to show the US economy only grew 1.2% QoQ (SAAR) in the second quarter instead of 2.4% as originally reported.

Eurozone CPI and Empire Manufacturing dominate agenda

Mon, 16 Aug 2010 08:04:00 GMT

Eurozone CPI and Empire Manufacturing are the ones to watch Monday. While US retailers will also be in focus after Kohl's and JC Penney lowered forecasts.

Macro impact of QE light likely insignificant

Wed, 11 Aug 2010 10:15:00 GMT

The Fed annouced yesterday that it will buy US treasuries with the principal payments from maturing mortgage-backed securities. The stock market initially cheered, but we have our reservation as to the impact on economic activity.

Eyes On FOMC Meeting Tuesday - More QE Coming?

Mon, 09 Aug 2010 07:42:00 GMT

QE lite (using cash from maturing mortgages to buy UST) is a possible outcome tomorrow, but QE2 will not arrive yet. Wait for the next meeting in September.

Read Daily Trading Stance

Non-Farm Payrolls headlines Friday; Drop expected

Fri, 06 Aug 2010 07:47:00 GMT

It’s going to be another negative change in total payrolls, but the private sector is expected to add 100K jobs. That is, however, still not enough to keep up with the growing population.

Non-farm Payrolls expected to drop 30,000

Thu, 05 Aug 2010 14:53:00 GMT

The US labour market report for July is due Friday and we expect another 30,000 decline in total non-farm payrolls. The unemployment rate is expected to increase slightly to 9.6%.

Macro agenda to dominate; ADP jobs data eyed

Wed, 04 Aug 2010 07:47:00 GMT

Wednesday sees the release of US ADP Employment data which will serve as a solid indicator of Non-Farm Payrolls data due Friday. Also, ISM Non-manufacturing is expected to slow down (but still signal expansion).

Watch out for ISM Manufacturing today, buy on dips

Mon, 02 Aug 2010 07:25:00 GMT

ISM Manufacturing is the one to watch today and both consensus and we expect the report to show that manufacturing grew at a slower pace.

Watch out for macro data Friday, especially US GDP

Fri, 30 Jul 2010 07:38:00 GMT

Earnings have been better-than-expected this earnings season, but we expect the earnings surprise to be mostly priced in. Hence macro will become more important, starting with US GDP today.

Market Overview Weekly Video: GDP expectations

Thu, 29 Jul 2010 17:10:00 GMT

Video: Weekly Market Overview, Sony & Shell's strong Q2 results, US GDP and Basel 3 discussed.

US GDP Preview: unchanged pace

Thu, 29 Jul 2010 13:26:00 GMT

Friday's US Q2 GDP report is expected to show that the economy grew 2.6% QoQ annualized driven by consumer spending and changes to inventories.

Strong earnings from Shell and Sony will boost risk appetite

Thu, 29 Jul 2010 07:26:00 GMT

Sony beat earnings handsomely (25.7bn. Yen vs. 18bn. expected) and also raised full-year guidance by 10bn. to 60bn. Yen.

Earnings to continue fuelling risk sentiment

Wed, 28 Jul 2010 07:24:00 GMT

Earnings still setting the tone for risk sentiment and we expect solid results to continue. But US Durable Goods Orders data are released today so watch out for new signs of a slowing economy.

New Home Sales not as good as they look

Tue, 27 Jul 2010 07:22:00 GMT

New Home Sales yesterday were appalling, considering the number (330K) is the second worst ever recorded. Other numbers were not too solid either. But earnings reports remain strong.

Risk rally, but were EU stress tests too gentle?

Mon, 26 Jul 2010 07:20:00 GMT

It was unsurprising that only 7 out of 91 banks failed EU stress tests. The results show just EUR 3.5bn is needed in new capital in the banking sector while we expected a much higher figure of EUR 75bn.

Veksler's Forex Blog: An Apple a day keeps the market well bid

Wed, 21 Jul 2010 09:22:00 GMT

Markets are pricing in a risk on sort of day. Worth noting amongst the euphoria, is the reporting, while in some cases better-than-expected, is on lower overall revenues - which doesn’t bode well in the longer run.

Risk the major play as Morgan Stanley, Abbott report

Wed, 21 Jul 2010 07:38:00 GMT

Apple posted a 78% surge in the Q3 profit which triggered a rally in risk overnight in Asia. Look out for earnings from Morgan Stanley and Abbott Labs as drivers of risk appetite.

FX Update: EUR rally stalls above 1.30 for a second time

Wed, 21 Jul 2010 07:09:00 GMT

EUR's early attempt to rally was beaten back last night with 1.3029 the best it could do. This, despite strong demand at the Greek, Irish and Spanish auctions. The pair slipped back through 1.29 on profit-taking and short-term stops from momentum traders.

Macro Forecasts for July

Mon, 05 Jul 2010 10:57:00 GMT

Both the US and Japan look set for slower growth in the second half of 2010.

The PBoC declares renminbi flexibility

Mon, 21 Jun 2010 07:23:00 GMT

The CNY is flying after the PBoC sought for “flexibility” in the exchange rate. All things Asian and commodity related are also higher. China, however, does not want to discuss the CNY in the upcoming G20 meeting.

European bank stress tests to be published, sending equities higher

Fri, 18 Jun 2010 07:26:00 GMT

Following the central bank of Spain’s decision to publish the results of the stress tests on its banks, the EU has now followed suit.