About EFTs

Risk appetite back on Obama's speech and FOMC statement

Thu, 28 Jan 2010 08:30:00 GMT

Stocks reacting positively to both the FOMC statement and Obama’s State of the Union speech – promising to combat unemployment.

Temporary retracement in risk, look for buying opportunities on dips

Mon, 25 Jan 2010 08:37:00 GMT

Obamas proposal to further regulate US banks led to Friday's sell-off in equities during the US session. It continued in Asia and Europe opened lower. But in our view this will be overshadowed by solid earnings reports.

Risk appetite increases on Australia's labour data

Thu, 14 Jan 2010 08:29:00 GMT

The market received some good news from Australia overnight with the change in employment coming in at 35.2K vs. 10.0K expected resulting in an unemployment rate of 5.5% (5.8% expected)

Earnings calendar for Jan 12 to Jan 24

Tue, 12 Jan 2010 14:06:00 GMT

Download the list of companies Q4 reporting earnings from 01/12-2010 to 01/24-2010. Companies in the S&P 500 Index and the Bloomberg European 500 Index are included.

Alcoa kicks off the earnings season in poor fashion

Tue, 12 Jan 2010 09:45:00 GMT

Alcoa reported worse than expected EPS yesterday, with the reported EPS of 1 cent/share 5 cents below the consensus of expectations on the Street.

Frosty start to 2010 gives commodities a lift

Mon, 11 Jan 2010 10:25:00 GMT

Commodity markets kicked off the New Year by making strong gains as exceptionally cold weather across the Northern hemisphere gave energy and other sectors a boost. This time of year everyone from hedge funds through to the private investors get back into the markets looking for profitable investment opportunities. Given the strong performance of commodities in 2009 where the CRB index rose by 30% and investment flows into the sector rose by more than USD 60 billion it was and is expected that the sector will have another year with positive returns.

Trading Floor’s Top 10 picks for 2010

Thu, 07 Jan 2010 08:52:00 GMT

The next 12 months could turn out to be a rollercoaster ride for the global economy, but there are still plenty of opportunities for trading in financial markets. Trading Floor Strategists have put together their Top 10 picks for trades in the next 12 months taking into account first positive and then negative trading in 2010. The picks are part of the bank’s 2010 Outlook.

Asset allocation remains 'Outright Bullish'

Mon, 04 Jan 2010 13:03:00 GMT

The return on the Saxo Asset Allocation model for December was 2.76%. The model is still “Outright Bullish”.

Dollar finds buyers again

Wed, 16 Dec 2009 08:21:00 GMT

The USD is finding buyers again and the downsloping trend is in danger. That means that stocks could be on the retreat again although the uptrend in stocks is intact (still).

Stock futures up as Adu Dhabi bails out Dubia World

Mon, 14 Dec 2009 08:38:00 GMT

Abu Dhabi has pledged $10bn to the state-owned Dubai World to help the company meet its obligations. Risk appetite increased on the news and stock futures are up.

Positive Chinese figures spurs risk rally

Fri, 11 Dec 2009 08:39:00 GMT

A turnaround is brewing in most asset classes and markets are again embracing risk, full-throttle – helped by rather decent Chinese growth and industrial production figures overnight.

Negative on risk today despite stronger AUD and S&P 500 yesterday

Thu, 10 Dec 2009 08:31:00 GMT

Much better than expected employment data from Australia caused the AUD to rally overnight. Additionally, the S&P 500 staged a comeback in the US session, but we are nevertheless negative on risk today. Watch out for the weekly employment data from the US. Initial jobless claims could disappoint the market, which is expecting a 2K fall in claims, today.

Stronger dollar brings hope to USD bulls

Wed, 09 Dec 2009 08:42:00 GMT

A strengthening dollar seems to confirm the negative correlation break-down from Friday and suggests that USD bulls have more to hope for in the short term.

Bernanke's comments on the US economy sent dollar lower

Tue, 08 Dec 2009 09:29:00 GMT

Bernanke’s comments yesterday were decidedly bearish (“economy facing formidable headwinds” and “inflation remains subdued”), so the USD went lower.

US Unemployment may surprise to the upside

Fri, 04 Dec 2009 08:44:00 GMT

ISM Non-Manufacturing was sufficiently bad to spur a broad-based risk reduction. Since both sovereign and corporate CDS prices were down, we might see a bounce in risk ahead of the US labour market data. However, we believe that the labour market data will disappoint and that taking profit or going short ahead of the release is worth considering.

Follow European rates and US indicators today

Thu, 03 Dec 2009 08:39:00 GMT

With the USD edging lower vs. Gold, EUR, AUD and others, it looks like another day of risk-taking. Corporate bond spreads are narrow and CDS prices are easing. Bank of America is to repay all the $45B TARP – we expect this to be another positive today, as it indicates a stronger belief in the company’s cash-flows. The ECB will be talking interest rates today. Another trigger today will likely be Initial Jobless Claims reported for last week. Due to Thanksgiving, unemployed only had 3½ days to report, which should result in a lower than expected figure. ISM Non-Manufacturing might disappoint slightly, though – so take profit on longs ahead of ISM.

Sell on rallies into Thanksgiving

Thu, 26 Nov 2009 08:27:00 GMT

Our stance today is a “sell-on-rallies”, since we need some consolidation and since traders would be reluctant to break important levels on thin Thanksgiving liquidity.

Asian session shows risk is back on

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 08:47:00 GMT

The Asian session showed risk appetite is back in town. Equities going higher and AUD and EUR trading higher vs. USD, JPY and CHF. Today's possible trigger is US Retail Sales at 1.30 (GMT). We believe that it could surprise positively.

Eurozone GDP the one to watch today

Fri, 13 Nov 2009 08:08:00 GMT

German GDP was out this morning and came in line with expectations. A lot of other countries in the Eurozone are struggling to follow Germany out of the recession so EC GDP could disappoint slightly.

European stocks should follow yesterday's US session higher

Tue, 01 Sep 2009 08:04:00 GMT

The fibo-level at 1014 in S&P 500 was retested yesterday and rejected. This will bring European equities higher this morning

Stronger Yen following Japanese election

Mon, 31 Aug 2009 08:13:00 GMT

The yen appreciated against most major currencies after the ruling party in Japan for the better part of the last 54 years, LDP, lost yesterday's election in Japan

Dexia Q2 profits down, target price to €6.6

Thu, 27 Aug 2009 09:50:00 GMT

Dexia SA the world's largest lender to local governments, said second quarter profit fell 47% after setting aside money for risky loans. Net income declined to €283m ($402m) from €532 m a year earlier.

We continue to believe that Dexia will experience margin pressure from higher funding cost and lower contribution from portfolio in run-off.

Royal Ahold beats estimates and keeps 'Neutral' rating

Thu, 20 Aug 2009 08:25:00 GMT

Royal Ahold NV, the largest Dutch food retailer, posted second-quarter profit that beat analysts’
estimates as price cuts lured more shoppers. We reiterate our Neutral rating. We view Ahold as a ‘recovered’, well-managed company, with a solid balance sheet.

Significant risk reversal yesterday will drive equities higher today

Thu, 20 Aug 2009 08:01:00 GMT

A huge reversal of risk yesterday. After having threatened to make new lows in S&P500, risky assets rallied lead by commodities and HY bonds. The JPY was lower, but ITRAX/CDS prices were higher

Equities retraced despite better than expected Empire Manufacturing numbers from the US

Tue, 18 Aug 2009 07:57:00 GMT

Despite better than expected Empire Manufacturing from the US - equities dropped in yesterday's session. This was on the back of a report saying that profit margins in US corporations are weak.

Oil range-bound as bulls and bears fight it out

Fri, 14 Aug 2009 18:23:00 GMT

Commodity traders spent the week digesting the continued situation with opposing factors pulling the market in both directions. Momentum has been incredible with the strongest stock market rally since 1938 which shows it could go higher, but a word or warning is not out of place.

Deflation concerns have begun to emerge as the US showed the steepest decline in CPI for 60 years. Worries about future inflation will still be a theme for many but for now this is being pushed further and further out.