About Daily Trading Stance

Wake-up Call: Jackson 'Black Hole' awaited

Thu, 26 Aug 2010 07:54:00 GMT

Talk of BOJ intervention to weaken the JPY continues to aid risky assets as markets look forward to the Jackson Hole symposium. If they are looking for Bernanke to take drastic measures they could be in for a disappointment.

Wake-up Call: Double dip talk dominates

Wed, 25 Aug 2010 07:25:00 GMT

Equities continue to be depressed by the outlook for a double dip. Look out for earnings from BHP Billiton and L’Oreal as these have the potential to alter the trend short term.

Wake-up Call: Looking at US existing home sales

Tue, 24 Aug 2010 07:50:00 GMT

Today’s major release will be US existing home sales, and we worry that consensus is too optimistic about sales in July (though consensus has moved lower the last couple of days).

Wake-up Call: Is it growth on or growth off?

Mon, 23 Aug 2010 07:32:00 GMT

The major theme for equities is concern for economic growth/economic recovery. The jury is still out, but equities have not given in yet – earnings expectations are still not being revised lower.

Canada releases CPI today

Fri, 20 Aug 2010 08:02:00 GMT

We are treated to Canadian CPI today. Inflation at the consumer level is expected to accelerate to 1.6% (consensus: 1.9%)

BHP's increased bid is not without risk

Thu, 19 Aug 2010 07:39:00 GMT

BHP Billiton has increased its offer for Potash to USD 40B. BHP Billiton could pay up to USD 45 B. The deal should still be accretive for EPS, but is not without risk.

Heavy macroeconomic agenda to toy with markets

Tue, 17 Aug 2010 08:09:00 GMT

ZEW surveys out of Germany and Eurozone this morning are potential triggers. Consensus is quite negative, which is likely a reflection of the volatility in financial markets in August so far.

Eurozone CPI and Empire Manufacturing dominate agenda

Mon, 16 Aug 2010 08:04:00 GMT

Eurozone CPI and Empire Manufacturing are the ones to watch Monday. While US retailers will also be in focus after Kohl's and JC Penney lowered forecasts.

Eurozone GDP to increase YoY; US Retail Sales boosted by car sales

Fri, 13 Aug 2010 07:55:00 GMT

Eurozone GDP is expected to increase YoY in 2Q driven by Germany. Meanwhile US Retail Sales should increase on the back of domestic car sales.

Tech sector weakness likely; Fri's macro in focus

Thu, 12 Aug 2010 07:30:00 GMT

In equities, look for tech sector weakness after Cisco's lower sales forecast. In forex, JPY is down on speculation that the Bank of Japan is moving to weaken the currency following its strong gains recently.

Macro impact of QE light likely insignificant

Wed, 11 Aug 2010 10:15:00 GMT

The Fed annouced yesterday that it will buy US treasuries with the principal payments from maturing mortgage-backed securities. The stock market initially cheered, but we have our reservation as to the impact on economic activity.

Market may be disappointed by FOMC deliveries

Tue, 10 Aug 2010 07:42:00 GMT

Expectations of a fresh round of US quantitative easing - or at least indications that it may be initiated soon - have pushed risky assets higher in recent days. We think the market could be left disappointed by the announcement later Tuesday.

Eyes On FOMC Meeting Tuesday - More QE Coming?

Mon, 09 Aug 2010 07:42:00 GMT

QE lite (using cash from maturing mortgages to buy UST) is a possible outcome tomorrow, but QE2 will not arrive yet. Wait for the next meeting in September.

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Non-Farm Payrolls headlines Friday; Drop expected

Fri, 06 Aug 2010 07:47:00 GMT

It’s going to be another negative change in total payrolls, but the private sector is expected to add 100K jobs. That is, however, still not enough to keep up with the growing population.

Central bank meetings to dominate headlines

Thu, 05 Aug 2010 07:25:00 GMT

Both the BoE and the ECB will announce rates today and we expect them to maintain their respective rates.

Macro agenda to dominate; ADP jobs data eyed

Wed, 04 Aug 2010 07:47:00 GMT

Wednesday sees the release of US ADP Employment data which will serve as a solid indicator of Non-Farm Payrolls data due Friday. Also, ISM Non-manufacturing is expected to slow down (but still signal expansion).

Corp earnings back on the agenda; ADM to beat expectations?

Tue, 03 Aug 2010 07:37:00 GMT

There are plenty of US corporate earnings reports due out Tuesday pre-market, including ADM, which may beat the street.

Watch out for ISM Manufacturing today, buy on dips

Mon, 02 Aug 2010 07:25:00 GMT

ISM Manufacturing is the one to watch today and both consensus and we expect the report to show that manufacturing grew at a slower pace.

Watch out for macro data Friday, especially US GDP

Fri, 30 Jul 2010 07:38:00 GMT

Earnings have been better-than-expected this earnings season, but we expect the earnings surprise to be mostly priced in. Hence macro will become more important, starting with US GDP today.

Strong earnings from Shell and Sony will boost risk appetite

Thu, 29 Jul 2010 07:26:00 GMT

Sony beat earnings handsomely (25.7bn. Yen vs. 18bn. expected) and also raised full-year guidance by 10bn. to 60bn. Yen.

Earnings to continue fuelling risk sentiment

Wed, 28 Jul 2010 07:24:00 GMT

Earnings still setting the tone for risk sentiment and we expect solid results to continue. But US Durable Goods Orders data are released today so watch out for new signs of a slowing economy.

New Home Sales not as good as they look

Tue, 27 Jul 2010 07:22:00 GMT

New Home Sales yesterday were appalling, considering the number (330K) is the second worst ever recorded. Other numbers were not too solid either. But earnings reports remain strong.

Risk rally, but were EU stress tests too gentle?

Mon, 26 Jul 2010 07:20:00 GMT

It was unsurprising that only 7 out of 91 banks failed EU stress tests. The results show just EUR 3.5bn is needed in new capital in the banking sector while we expected a much higher figure of EUR 75bn.

Daily Trading Stance: Risk Appetite Could Reverse

Fri, 23 Jul 2010 07:20:00 GMT

Risk appetite sentiment from the overnight trading session in Asia to continue in the European session. However, as we approach the time for release of the EU stress test results, be careful as markets could turn very volatile.

Daily Trading Stance: Sell on rallies

Thu, 22 Jul 2010 07:25:00 GMT

Sentiment will be affected by a string of big name earnings reports (Nokia, Caterpillar, UPS, Microsoft) and a series of key macro numbers. We expect some risk aversion and keep a sell-on-rallies stance.

Risk the major play as Morgan Stanley, Abbott report

Wed, 21 Jul 2010 07:38:00 GMT

Apple posted a 78% surge in the Q3 profit which triggered a rally in risk overnight in Asia. Look out for earnings from Morgan Stanley and Abbott Labs as drivers of risk appetite.