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The Fed hikes discount rate by 0.25% to 0.75%

Fri, 19 Feb 2010 07:24:00 GMT

The Federal Reserve hiked their discount rate (not the fed funds rate) yesterday, which caused a large sell-off in risk. The central bank stressed that this does not change their outlook.

Buy on dips on European talks

Thu, 11 Feb 2010 08:00:00 GMT

Today, European leaders will meet (9.15 GMT) with the topics being the economy, the climate, and Haiti. However, there’s an expectation that talks on the Greek situation will take centre stage instead. The ECB is banned from helping out member countries through debt purchases, so it looks likely that a solution will involve loan guarantees from Germany and France. We expect risk appetite to continue today and remain buyers on dips.

Risk appetite up on news that Greece will not be alone

Wed, 10 Feb 2010 08:17:00 GMT

Risky assets turned in a strong performance yesterday as rumours that a bailout plan will be put together grew stronger – even if the terms of any solution to the Greek situation are still very unclear. Today, the German Finance Minister Schaeuble is expected to outline how Greece will be supported. Also watch out for the BoE inflation report (10:30) and Fed testimony at 15:00 GMT. Considering that we are still low on other news, including macro releases, and with a solution to the Greek situation apparently edging closer we remain bullish today and buy on dips in stocks.

Greece is the talk of the town as stocks take a beating in the US session

Tue, 09 Feb 2010 08:08:00 GMT

Short positions against the EUR are at record levels, while there's an expectation forming that an announcement from the EU on the Greek situation is forthcoming.

This week's earnings reports

Mon, 08 Feb 2010 09:04:00 GMT

Download a list of companies reporting Q4 earnings this week. Companies in the S&P 500 index and the Bloomberg European 500 index are included.

A quiet day on the macro side, look for earnings releases

Mon, 08 Feb 2010 08:30:00 GMT

A relatively quiet Monday follows the mixed unemployment report from Friday afternoon. Nonetheless we expect the Friday sell-off to continue, thus remain negative on risk, sell on rallies.

Nonfarm Payrolls

Fri, 05 Feb 2010 07:56:00 GMT

Today Nonfarm Payrolls are released with the added spice that the annual revision will accompany it. Estimates are all over the place ranging from -100K to 100K.

Buy breaks in equities on better than expected earnings

Thu, 04 Feb 2010 08:14:00 GMT

Risk could take a turn for the better if better than expected earnings reports continue throughout the day. Also keep an eye on German factory orders.

Companies reporting earnings this week

Wed, 03 Feb 2010 09:56:00 GMT

Companies reporting earnings this week can be downloaded as a PDF. Companies in the S&P 500 Index and the Bloomberg European 500 Index are included.

Earnings focus today - Cisco, Pfizer and Visa

Wed, 03 Feb 2010 08:13:00 GMT

Earnings are back in the drivers seat. The fear of soveriegn collapse in the PIIGS countries seems eased for the moment. We expect risk appetite coming back because earnings are so far quite good.

Risk appetite back on Obama's speech and FOMC statement

Thu, 28 Jan 2010 08:30:00 GMT

Stocks reacting positively to both the FOMC statement and Obama’s State of the Union speech – promising to combat unemployment.

Re-election of Bernanke could spur risk appetite again

Wed, 27 Jan 2010 08:40:00 GMT

It is now more or less obvious that Bernanke will be reelected as Fed Chairman. That will be supporting risk, so we are looking for a bounce in the markets over the rest of the week. Furthermore, New Home Sales have the potential to surprise on the upside, so we recommend being long stocks and risk over the figures. Therefore we have a “buy on dips” stance for risk today – especially ahead of the FOMC Decision and Statement tonight.

Temporary retracement in risk, look for buying opportunities on dips

Mon, 25 Jan 2010 08:37:00 GMT

Obamas proposal to further regulate US banks led to Friday's sell-off in equities during the US session. It continued in Asia and Europe opened lower. But in our view this will be overshadowed by solid earnings reports.

Goldman earnings will direct Europe and US opening today

Thu, 21 Jan 2010 08:30:00 GMT

Risk appetite retraced a bit overnight on the back of better than expected GDP growth from China. Goldman earnings will direct European markets and the openings of US markets in the afternoon.

Focus on the US banking sector

Wed, 20 Jan 2010 09:33:00 GMT

The earnings season is in full swing now and today three large banks will release their earnings reports

Big company earnings will dominate today

Tue, 19 Jan 2010 08:24:00 GMT

Citigroup, IBM, and CSX are among the US companies reporting earnings today. Also watch the ZEW sentiment figures from Germany.

Three-day weekend in the US, makes for a quiet day

Mon, 18 Jan 2010 08:05:00 GMT

With the US markets closed today for Martin Luther King Day, and nothing interesting on the macro calendar we are set for a quiet day ahead of bank reporting later in the week.

Look for earnings from JPMorgan and US Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization

Fri, 15 Jan 2010 08:35:00 GMT

Intel posted better than expected earnings yesterday and today's most earnings release is from JPMorgan. We expect JPMorgan to beat expectations.

Risk appetite increases on Australia's labour data

Thu, 14 Jan 2010 08:29:00 GMT

The market received some good news from Australia overnight with the change in employment coming in at 35.2K vs. 10.0K expected resulting in an unemployment rate of 5.5% (5.8% expected)

Today's UK industrial production report, centre of attention for European session

Wed, 13 Jan 2010 08:40:00 GMT

Increased noise in the media about hiking rates in China, while the US posted a Trade Balance deficit of $36.4 billion.

Earnings calendar for Jan 12 to Jan 24

Tue, 12 Jan 2010 14:06:00 GMT

Download the list of companies Q4 reporting earnings from 01/12-2010 to 01/24-2010. Companies in the S&P 500 Index and the Bloomberg European 500 Index are included.

Alcoa kicks off the earnings season in poor fashion

Tue, 12 Jan 2010 09:45:00 GMT

Alcoa reported worse than expected EPS yesterday, with the reported EPS of 1 cent/share 5 cents below the consensus of expectations on the Street.

Positive stance on risk today

Mon, 11 Jan 2010 09:36:00 GMT

With risk indicators still improving, we have a positive stance of risk today. Buy on dips in stocks. The NFP report published last Friday was much worse than expected, but the shock for markets did not even last the day.

It's all about jobs today

Fri, 08 Jan 2010 08:59:00 GMT

We are bullish on the payroll number coming out later this afternoon, our estimate lands at 35K vs. consensus of 0K.

Equities to trade in a tight range ahead of tomorrow's labour report

Thu, 07 Jan 2010 08:48:00 GMT

ADP Employment and ISM Non-Manufacturing point to a further improvement in tomorrow's Nonfarm Payrolls report.

US Manufacturing still improving

Wed, 06 Jan 2010 09:17:00 GMT

Factory Orders and Vechicle Sales from the US were both good yesterday. Watch out for - among others - ADP Empl. today as an indicator of the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls report.