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Quarterly Outlook

Q1 FX Options: More upside potential for volatilities
Gustave Rieunier, 13 January 201213 January 2012
Options´ implied volatilities give an insight into both the current behaviour of financial markets and their expected volatility and the FX options market is now at a crucial juncture. Read more
224 Views
1 Likes
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Q1 Monetary Policy: Major central banks
Nick Beecroft, 13 January 201213 January 2012
Federal measures which are already baked-in mean US fiscal policy will impose a small drag in 2012 and will essentially remain paralysed until 2013. In the EU, the probability is we will see yet another crisis summit in Q1 and Germany will cave in. Read more
93 Views
1 Likes
0 Comments
0 Followers
Q1 Commodity Outlook: Markets braced for headwinds
Ole Hansen, 13 January 201213 January 2012
Against the backdrop of an uncertain global economic outlook, with Europe looking very bad, Asia probably worse than consensus and the US improving somewhat, commodity traders will be looking towards 2012 with some confusion. Read more
175 Views
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Q1 Asia Outlook: Fasten your seatbelts, we are about to land
Andrew Robinson, 13 January 201213 January 2012
Asia’s economies have the benefit of still flying on all engines but with tremendous hope placed in the hands of the pilot – the powers-that-be in China – to determine the smoothness of the next landing. Read more
93 Views
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Q1 FX Outlook: The song remains (mostly) the same
John J Hardy, 13 January 201213 January 2012
We expect the USD rally to pick up further steam in early 2012 on global uncertainty and continued deleveraging. The Euro is likely to continue to weaken against the USD, JPY and GBP. Read more
115 Views
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Q1 Equity Outlook: Accept the uncertain future
Peter Garnry, 13 January 201213 January 2012
Investors are in a thick fog with low visibility and many are scared about the future of equities. Read more
101 Views
2 Likes
0 Comments
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Q1 Macro Outlook: Navigating the rough seas of the perfect storm
Mads Koefoed, 13 January 201213 January 2012
The developed economies will struggle with weak domestic demand while emerging economies see foreign trade ease, meaning reliance will have to be more on domestic demand. Read more
70 Views
1 Likes
0 Comments
0 Followers
Q1 Market Comment: Perfect storm brewing?
Steen Jakobsen, 13 January 201213 January 2012
A perfect storm is brewing in the New Year, and will likely already break out in its first quarter as tensions are mounting unbearably. Read more
148 Views
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Q4 Commodity Outlook: Tricky road ahead as dollar strengthens
Ole Hansen, 11 October 201111 October 2011
Commodity markets will continue to be driven by worries about the potential impact of a slowing global economy. Renewed dollar strength during September will probably continue into the last quarter and dampen the performance of commodities. Read more
351 Views
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Q4 Equity Outlook: Fortune may favour the bold
Peter Garnry, 11 October 201111 October 2011
As John D. Rockefeller said “The way to make money is to buy when blood is running in the streets” and that is our premise for our current equity outlook. Read more
223 Views
2 Likes
0 Comments
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Q4 Asia Feature: Is China losing its competitive edge?
Andrew Robinson, 11 October 201111 October 2011
China is facing an erosion of its global competitiveness with wage pressures linked to high-flying inflation being the dominant factors. The Chinese currency, and its gradual revaluation, is also playing its part. Read more
143 Views
2 Likes
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Q4 FX Options: Focus on EURUSD and EURCHF
Gustave Rieunier, 11 October 201111 October 2011
EURUSD continues to be under a great deal of pressure not only in the spot market, but also in the options market. After the SNB intervention price action in the EURCHF options market is also worth noting with implied volatility as dramatic as spot. Read more
408 Views
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Q4 FX Outlook: USD rally to extend
John J Hardy, 11 October 201111 October 2011
Waiting for a US dollar rally this year has felt like Waiting for Godot at times as we anticipated one for a long time before the greenback finally rallied sharply in late August and early September after a long period of stagnation over the summer. Read more
302 Views
1 Likes
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Q4 Monetary Policy
Nick Beecroft, 11 October 201111 October 2011
Insight into the direction of monetary policy in the US, Eurozone, Japan and UK during the remainder of 2011. Read more
84 Views
1 Likes
0 Comments
0 Followers
Q4 Macro Outlook: Emerging economies drag developed along
Mads Koefoed, 11 October 201111 October 2011
While the developed economies are struggling to cope with the drag from deleveraging, emerging markets have hiked rates as inflationary pressures have mounted due to domestic demand which remains strong and should offset weakening foreign demand. Read more
97 Views
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Q4 Market Comment: Maximum intervention and crisis 2.0
Steen Jakobsen, 11 October 201111 October 2011
Since our last quarterly outlook called ‘Maximum Uncertainty’ the world has moved from bad to worse. Growth prospects have soured and governments and central banks are everywhere pulling out the stops to save the system once again. Read more
973 Views
3 Likes
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Q4 Outlook: Final effort on debt markets and financial systems
Steen Jakobsen, 11 October 201111 October 2011
The most likely and healthiest destination for the world economy in the wake of maximum intervention will be crisis 2.0 – a real confrontation with our debt demons and bad practices to eventually replace the extend and pretend routine. Read more
140 Views
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Market comment: Erratic moves will be the norm
Steen Jakobsen, 28 June 201128 June 2011
Volatility is defined as the ’uncertainty of path’ and as such the second half of 2011 will be volatile and the uncertainty almost as great as during the financial crisis. Read more
901 Views
1 Likes
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The Asian inflation worry - past or future?
Andrew Robinson, 28 June 201128 June 2011
The Asian consumer tends to be a bit more optimistic than their western counterparts (especially in growth times!) but mumblings and grumblings on the streets of Asia are becoming more widespread. Read more
123 Views
1 Likes
0 Comments
0 Followers
Equity outlook: Will equities emerge from the fog?
Peter Garnry, 28 June 201128 June 2011
The hangover for equities over the last three months, following the Japanese disaster, has turned into disappointment over economic data and concerns about Europe’s sovereign debt situation. These events have reduced short-term visibility for stocks. Read more
227 Views
2 Likes
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Quarterly Outlook
Saxo Bank’s Quarterly Outlook takes a deeper look at the events that have unfolded in the previous quarter and how they might evolve in the forthcoming quarter. It covers all the asset classes and macroeconomic fundamentals.
Author(s) Gustave Rieunier, Nick Beecroft, Ole Hansen, Andrew Robinson, John J Hardy, Peter Garnry, Mads Koefoed, Steen Jakobsen

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