Forex
29 January 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
Great economic data and solid corporate earnings couldn't get risk appetite headed in the right direction today - just a one-off end of month fixing thing or serious grounds for worry?
29 January 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
US GDP is a blowout number - just a result of an inventory build, or something for risk to hang its hat on? Bonds so far showing signs of skepticism and the AUD not getting much of a kick from this supposedly risk-positive news.
29 January 2010
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
Risk appetite is on the retreat on the back of worse than expected macro figures, despite reasonable earnings. We expect US GDP to come out strong today - could trigger a risk rally.
29 January 2010
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
Risk appetite took another step backwards overnight as US data remained on the weak side and jitters running through Wall St on an under-performing tech sector. On the data front, it was a very disappointing initial jobless claims number with only a small fall from last week's supposedly holiday-influenced number being noted.
28 January 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
GBP was taken down by critical comments from the S&P. Greek debt spreads have gone ballistic, keeping the Euro in the hot seat, as well as risk generally. Is the low volatility environment behind us?
28 January 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
Major event risks are now behind us and the market is trying to decide whether this is a dead cat bounce or the real thing. EURUSD struggling to maintain altitude above above 1.4000. Tomorrow is another busy day for the North American economic calendar.
28 January 2010
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
Stocks reacting positively to both the FOMC statement and Obama’s State of the Union speech – promising to combat unemployment.
28 January 2010
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
The US session saw the USD generally firmer with the USD index closing above its 200-day MA for the first time since May last year. Weak US data helped to temper gains however, as US new home sales came in at a disappointing -7.6% m/m which held Wall St in negative territory for the most part.
27 January 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
USD Index breaks above 200-day moving average after relatively hawkish FOMC today. Will EURUSD be able to take out the 1.4000 level as well? Also - USDJPY trying to post a bullish reversal on the day.
27 January 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
Plenty on tap today with FOMC up later and Obama trying to make a strong stand at his first State of the Union address after the market closes. Market remains in a holding pattern.
27 January 2010
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
It is now more or less obvious that Bernanke will be reelected as Fed Chairman. That will be supporting risk, so we are looking for a bounce in the markets over the rest of the week. Furthermore, New Home Sales have the potential to surprise on the upside, so we recommend being long stocks and risk over the figures. Therefore we have a “buy on dips” stance for risk today – especially ahead of the FOMC Decision and Statement tonight.
27 January 2010
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
Heading into the European session yesterday, it looked like doom & gloom were the buzzwords with risk given a definite knock back following talk of a fresh set of China reserve ratio hikes and a downgrade to Japan’s outlook, and that for JGBs, to negative by S&P. GBP was buoyed by some early fix demand but that proved short-lived as GDP data disappointed (again!) and barely showed the UK coming out of recession in Q4 (+0.1% q/q vs. +0.4% expected and -0.2% prior). GBP’s cause was not helped either when PIMCO declared a dislike for Gilts, instead preferring German and Canadian debt.
26 January 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
Market feels like it has become very emotion as we are perched at key pivot areas for the risk and the USD ahead of tomorrow's Obama speech, the FOMC meeting. USD Index - a brick wall at the 200-day moving average - or is the greenback a cheetah ready to pounce?
26 January 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
Chinese banks are cracking down hard on lending activity. This sent Chinese stocks to a new multi-month low and soured risk appetite elsewhere. The pound is on the defensive after yet another ugly GDP reading. Is it time for a EURGBP rally?
26 January 2010
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
Watch out for the housing indices out of the US today. House prices appear to have stagnated and we expect a flat MoM number, which translates into a -5.2% YoY figure from -7.3% prior.
26 January 2010
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
Currency markets were mostly range-bound overnight though with pockets of action throughout the day. The only data release in Europe – German consumer confidence – gave the EUR a temporary lift as it beat forecasts (+3.2 versus 3.1 expected) while talk that the Greek debt auction was experiencing high demand also provided impetus. Results suggest the issue was more than 3x over-subscribed though Greece had to pay a premium over last time while strong demand from official European sources took some of the shine off the mood.
25 January 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
The market decided to not make a decision today. Key weekly pivots in USD crosses may be in focus this week.
25 January 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
An interesting week ahead as president Obama tries to regain the political intiative and markets decide whether to follow up on the recent strong USD move.
25 January 2010
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
Obamas proposal to further regulate US banks led to Friday's sell-off in equities during the US session. It continued in Asia and Europe opened lower. But in our view this will be overshadowed by solid earnings reports.
25 January 2010
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
The desire to move out of riskier assets continued on into the US session on Friday, though there were pockets of support for certain currency pairs found at the lows.
22 January 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
Lots to talk about today as market goes white knuckle into the close on worst week for risk since the market bottomed last March. Read on...
22 January 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
The last day of an eventful week is upon us - will it finish in the gutter or will risk bravely try to rally here? USDJPY remains at an important technical threshold.
22 January 2010
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
Market down led by banks on Obama’s plan for additional regulation of banks and bank holding companies. The implication would be less risk-taking on an aggregate level.
22 January 2010
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
Risk aversion hit markets big time midway through the US morning yesterday as markets reacted to US Pres. Obama’s speech in which he outlined plans to limit the size of banks and the share of funding that can come from non-deposit sources while also declaring that commercial banking and proprietary trading activities would be segregated in the future. While it is noted that such moves would require legislation and may take years to implement, the damage was done.
21 January 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
A few interesting charts to conside on the close today after we have drawn an important line in the sand today after risk appetite headed for the exit.
21 January 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
Lots going on here as the bottom seems to be falling out of the risk complex.This mid-day update takes a look at what is shaking the currency markets.
21 January 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
The sudden momentum in risk aversion developed yesterday has so far failed to expand in today's trading, even as very strong Chinese growth data raises the risk of further regime activism in attempting to slow the growth in credit. AUDUSD remains a pure play on this “to risk or not to risk” market.
21 January 2010
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
Heightened fears of an imminent China hike ensured risk was definitely OFF in the overnight session with a firming dollar feeding in to a weak Wall St translating into a softer tone for commodities.
20 January 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
An interesting day for currencies as the dollar index ends the day perched right at its 200-day moving average. Today we have a look at that and at developments in our carry trade model. Read on...
20 January 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
FX volatility blossoms as EURUSD slips below the 200-day moving average and China tries to clamp down on its overheating economy and therefore on global risk willingness. Tonight we find out how hot the heat is getting in the Middle Kingdom with a raft of data points. The US populace is fighting mad as we can see from the results of the special senate election in Massachusetts and more negative confidence data.
20 January 2010
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
The earnings season is in full swing now and today three large banks will release their earnings reports
20 January 2010
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
The risk-on/risk-off pendulum swung back to the former during yesterday’s session with Wall St putting on a strong showing after the long weekend. Firmer China rates at the weekly auction had seen Asia handing over the baton with risk appetite on the wane and this theme extended into the European session.
19 January 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
The action generate overnight in Asia and Europe failed to follow through in the NY session today, after equities turned tail from weakness to pronounced strength. The US NAHB housing survey was disappointing - look out for weekly confidence data after the close.
19 January 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
GBP went ballistic on the Cadbury takeover deal and shockingly high inflation data, but is settling much lower vs. the dollar ahead of the NY session. Is that it for the GBPUSD rally? Bank of Canada out with a relatively dovish statement – time for a bit of USDCAD upside for once?
19 January 2010
Nick Beecroft, Senior Markets Consultant
This morning’s release of December’s UK inflation numbers will have sent the Bank of England’s MPC and Governor Mervyn King, into something of an unseemly tailspin.
19 January 2010
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
Citigroup, IBM, and CSX are among the US companies reporting earnings today. Also watch the ZEW sentiment figures from Germany.
19 January 2010
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
Currency markets were predictably quiet yesterday with US equity and bond markets closed for Martin Luther King Day. Sentiment from Europe was mildly bullish on equities and as a result we saw a generally softer tone for the dollar though moves were muted and narrow.
18 January 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
The ugly close in equity markets in the US on Friday failed to spark a wider sell-0ff in risk in global markets. The US calendar is especially quiet this week as corporate earnings remain a big focus for the direction in risk. AUDUSD is poking at resistance after a strong comeback from Friday's sell-off - is the bull market there a permanent condition?
18 January 2010
Ole S Hansen, Senior Manager, Saxo Bank
After the New Year rush to initiate long positions commodity markets ran out of steam this week. The CRB index showing a flat return after a near four percent gain during the first week of trading. The main sell off came from the grain and oilseeds followed by the energy sector. The “frost” premium that helped drive energy prices higher at the beginning of the month has begun to evaporate as forecast for milder weather combined with another rise in inventories has taken prices lower. Market moves caused by weather shocks are by nature temporary but the surge in demand has helped reduce booming inventories somewhat.
18 January 2010
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
With the US markets closed today for Martin Luther King Day, and nothing interesting on the macro calendar we are set for a quiet day ahead of bank reporting later in the week.
18 January 2010
Nick Beecroft, Senior Markets Consultant
Eventually, but probably not before Q3 2010, the ECB may want to gently massage the market into expecting small official rate rises towards the end of the year by first ‘protesting’ at the low, and still gradually falling, level of EONIA and 3 month LIBORS, say, by ending the policy of full-allotment of requested liquidity and/or by offering to pay higher rates for term deposits. However, in the short term, even these measures seem highly unlikely, given the still fragile condition of the economy and of the banks, not to mention the Hellenic headache.
18 January 2010
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
On Friday, US data releases were mixed though were generally disappointing at the margin. December CPI was slightly below forecast, rising just 0.1% m/m with core also up 0.1% m/m though year-on-year comparisons ticked sharply higher as a result of higher oil prices. Industrial production increased in line with expectations in Dec, +0.6% m/m, though much of the gain could be attributed to higher utilities output due to the extremely cold weather during the month. January’s empire state index rose to 15.9 from 4.05, above consensus of 12.0, while Michigan sentiment was below forecast at 72.8 vs. 74.0.
15 January 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
Risk appetite dove for the exit in the North American session, though the reaction in FX was rather muted. The EURUSD bears still have a couple of important support levels to break to really prove the bearish technical case, as EURUSD remains in limbo at the moment.
15 January 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
A strange mix of strong JPY and strong commodity currencies as bonds are strong while risk is too. On the weak side? Euro, where developments continue to weigh on the single currency.
15 January 2010
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
Intel posted better than expected earnings yesterday and today's most earnings release is from JPMorgan. We expect JPMorgan to beat expectations.
15 January 2010
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
US retail sales ex-autos and gas fell 0.3% in December, failing to match expectations of gains of 0.2%, but the previous month’s reading was revised higher from +0.6% to +1.0%, partly offsetting the negative December print. Initial jobless claims were also were slightly higher than expected at 444k vs. 437k though more encouragingly the 4-week moving average slid to its lowest level since August 2008 and continuing claims fell to 4,596k vs. consensus 4,750k and 4,807k last week. So, with both bulls and bears able to garner something from the data, FX markets played ranges during the overnight session.
14 January 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
Mr. Trichet seemed wanted to reassure markets that the ECB would do little about the Greek situation, even as it reassured markets that the idea of Greece leaving the Euro was “absurd”. Meanwhile, fixed income rallied after mixed US retail sales results, strongly boosting the JPY again.
14 January 2010
Nick Beecroft, Senior Markets Consultant
At its meeting today, I would expect the ECB to leave its official Refi and Deposit rates unchanged at 1% and 0.25% respectively. Economic releases so far in 2010 have generally told the tale of a lacklustre recovery
14 January 2010
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
The market received some good news from Australia overnight with the change in employment coming in at 35.2K vs. 10.0K expected resulting in an unemployment rate of 5.5% (5.8% expected)
14 January 2010
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
A mixed session for currency markets overnight with early USD losses generally scaled back onto the close. GBP was the major out-performer on the day, buoyed by upbeat comments on the economic outlook from BOE’s Sentence initially, and Barker later on, the former saying the BOE’s QE program has been a success, with enough being done on this front and now be the time for adopting a “wait and see” approach. The comments helped pull GBPUSD up to 1.63 with additional impetus noted from NIESR estimates that the UK economy grew 0.3% in December (though for the full year annualized growth was the lowest since 1921). GBP buying was also noted linked to M&A activity and dividend payments.
13 January 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
Equities and commodities were all over the place, but the action in FX was far more muted today ahead of Australian employment report tonight and US Retail Sales results from the critical holiday shopping season up tomorrow. Is the Australian
13 January 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
The pound bounced as the BoE's Sentance argued for a full stop to QE and hinted at the risks of inflation and the need to raise interest rates. GBPUSD trading at a new three-week+ high as USD weakens again. Commodity currencies surprisingly buoyant ahead of important employment report out of Australia tonight.
13 January 2010
Further job losses and negative existing home sales in the US, non-existent inflation in the Eurozone and a weakening labour market in Japan. The Macro Forecast for January has coverage of all the major indicators.
13 January 2010
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
Increased noise in the media about hiking rates in China, while the US posted a Trade Balance deficit of $36.4 billion.
13 January 2010
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
A mixed session in currency markets yesterday as the initial reaction to China’s hike in it reserve requirement ratio (RRR) saw the edge take off risk with a broad benefit for the USD and JPY. The PBOC announced a 0.5% increase in the RRR to 16% for large commercial banks, 14% for small banks, the first increase since June 2008. However, there was no noticeable follow through in FX activity and there was no major break of recognized supports noted.
12 January 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
Currency market moving and shaking today as risk volatility expands. The market moves played most to the JPY's benefit. AUD is looking very vulnerable on the latest developments, including a dump in the gold market and general risk aversion. Are commodity currencies due a further correction?
12 January 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
Bonds are stronger after a successful US treasury auction and on a backdraft in risk aversion that have the JPY pushing back strongly versus the market. Where should we look for support in the JPY crosses?
12 January 2010
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
Alcoa reported worse than expected EPS yesterday, with the reported EPS of 1 cent/share 5 cents below the consensus of expectations on the Street.
12 January 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
The last month of the year saw a dramatic change of fortunes for major currencies, much of which was triggered by tectonic shifts in the bond market. After bond yields bottomed in late November, they reversed course and
shot higher, accelerated to the upside by a very strong November US employment report released in the first week of December.
11 January 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
CAD sufferes heavy damage from energy sell-off and CB comments - will USDCAD continue to find support? JPY making a comeback on stable to falling bond yields. Risk appetite in focus with Q4 earnings season swinging into full gear with today's Alcoa earnings release
11 January 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
The USD was on the offer from the get-go to start the week, and is etching new lows versus a basket of higher yielding currencies. Is the USD slipping back into carry trade funding currency mode? ECB on tap for Thursday.
11 January 2010
Ole S Hansen, Senior Manager, Saxo Bank
Commodity markets kicked off the New Year by making strong gains as exceptionally cold weather across the Northern hemisphere gave energy and other sectors a boost. This time of year everyone from hedge funds through to the private investors get back into the markets looking for profitable investment opportunities. Given the strong performance of commodities in 2009 where the CRB index rose by 30% and investment flows into the sector rose by more than USD 60 billion it was and is expected that the sector will have another year with positive returns.
11 January 2010
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
With risk indicators still improving, we have a positive stance of risk today. Buy on dips in stocks. The NFP report published last Friday was much worse than expected, but the shock for markets did not even last the day.
08 January 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
A mish-mash of reactions to the ugly US data. US Consumer Credit data was also alarming. USDJPY may have finally scratched out an interim top for now. Read on for more details...
08 January 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
Near unanimous expectations for a strong US Nonfarm payrolls number were frustrated and shocked with an ugly negative payrolls figure. This sent government treasuries sharply higher and eroded support for the greenback. Interestingly, the JPY has found surprisingly little support on a broader basis from this development…
08 January 2010
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
We are bullish on the payroll number coming out later this afternoon, our estimate lands at 35K vs. consensus of 0K.
07 January 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
The market mostly trading withing recent ranges ahead of tomorrow's main event. AUDUSD and NZDUSD saw interesting bearish reversals today - simply a pause to respect the upcoming event risk, or a sign of rally exhaustion? Also to close out the day, we have a look at a few scenarios for the US nonfarm payrolls release and the market's possible reaction.
07 January 2010
Mads Koefoed, Macro Strategist, Saxo Bank
US Nonfarm Payrolls numbers took the markets by surprise last month and we think that they could do it again - returning the first positive number in two years. Our models suggest we could see Nonfarm Payrolls rise by 35,000 compared with unchanged from most commentators. Why the big gap? Trends in other employment indicators and seasonal adjustments.
07 January 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
USDJPY on the move again as new Finance Minister clearly prefers a weaker JPY. Commodity currencies reverse from new highs ahead of tomorrow's key US employment report. The BoE announcement failed to provide new clues.
07 January 2010
Nick Beecroft, Senior Markets Consultant
It appears Japan's new Finance Minister, Naoto Kan, is acutely aware of the threat which a strong yen would pose to an economy struggling to escape deflation's icy grip. Today he said he would like to see the currency weaken, 'a bit more', and that 'we will make the yen an appropriate level'.
07 January 2010
Nick Beecroft, Senior Markets Consultant
Today's Bank of England MPC meeting is unlikely to surprise the market, either in terms of the level of base rates or the question of QE. Rates will be kept at 0.5%, and the cap on QE is unlikely to be changed at this meeting; any change to the latter becomes more likely at the next meeting, in February, by which time the MPC will have seen the latest B. of E. Inflation Report.
07 January 2010
Andrew Arnold, Trading Floor Editor
The next 12 months could turn out to be a rollercoaster ride for the global economy, but there are still plenty of opportunities for trading in financial markets. Trading Floor Strategists have put together their Top 10 picks for trades in the next 12 months taking into account first positive and then negative trading in 2010. The picks are part of the bank’s 2010 Outlook.
07 January 2010
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
ADP Employment and ISM Non-Manufacturing point to a further improvement in tomorrow's Nonfarm Payrolls report.
07 January 2010
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
The dollar slid further overnight, though not aggressively so, as minutes from the FOMC carried dovish undertones. US policymakers remained cautious on the economic outlook and their forecasts had not changed appreciably from the previous meeting. There also seemed to be no indication that the FOMC was moving forward with its exit strategy for which it has described a clear timeline.
06 January 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
JPY remains very weak as equities rally and the dovish FOMC fails to ignite sustainable bond rally in the US. AUD looks a bit pricey relative to rate spreads - will tonight's retail sales data from Down Under have any effect?
06 January 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
ECB comments rattled the EURUSD early today, but it quickly recovered. Japan appoints a new Finance Minister after Fujii resigns due to poor health. US ADP employment number suggests a strong payrolls number on Friday, but will the ISM non-manufacturing data offer reason for more hope on the US economy?
06 January 2010
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
Factory Orders and Vechicle Sales from the US were both good yesterday. Watch out for - among others - ADP Empl. today as an indicator of the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls report.
06 January 2010
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
The dollar managed a minor comeback during the US session yesterday as both data and positioning tended to provide few new answers to near-term trends. On the data front, November factory orders beat forecasts with a +1.0% m/m print but pending home sales in December, on the headline at least, showed a sharp drop from the previous month with what seemed like a catastrophic 16.0% m/m drop. However, when one considers at the time tax incentives were scheduled to be rescinded (since been reinstated but this was not clear at the time), then the sharp decline is not all that surprising.
05 January 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
The greenback mounted a comeback today as USD bears perhaps overextended themselves ahead of a trio of important US event risks tomorrow followed by Friday's US employment report.
05 January 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
The JPY carry traders were squeezed by a sharp fall in bond yields in the European session. Risk appetite showed signs of a pause in early US Trading as well. AUDUSD has reached an interesting resistance area.
05 January 2010
David Karsbøl, Chief Economist, Saxo Bank
Risk indicators and macro releases point towards another good day for risky assets. Credit spreads narrowing, CDS’s trending lower and oil is higher, so we keep a “buy-on-dips” stance today
05 January 2010
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
US data continued to surprise to the upside overnight with the ISM manufacturing number for December coming in at a strong 55.9 versus 53.6 previously (though not as strong as the rumoured 65.0 just before the release!) and against a forecast of 54.3. This marked a new cycle high and some components confirmed this with a fresh high also noted in new orders and a widening in the gap between orders and inventories. On the whole a solid report which should have triggered firmer US yields and a firmer USD. On the flip side, November construction spending was marginally worse than expected (-0.6% m/m vs. -0.5%) and came on the back of a 0.5% downward revision to October’s data.
04 January 2010
David Karsbøl, Chief Economist, Saxo Bank
The Saxo Bank Forex Portfolio Model returned -0.41% for the month of December. Current exposure is still favouring longs in AUD (23%), NZD (21%) but less so than in the December allocation. The model adds a big long position in CHF (30%).
04 January 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
It looks like the USD bears are trying to take a renewed stand in the New Year. They may have success for a while, though interest rates spreads will likely need to cooperate for any significant further USD weakness. Cold weather is also having a real impact on the US economy at the moment.
04 January 2010
David Karsbøl, Chief Economist, Saxo Bank
The return on the Saxo Asset Allocation model for December was 2.76%. The model is still “Outright Bullish”.
04 January 2010
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
Good manufacturing numbers from China and expected solid ISM numbers from the US today will spur the risk appetite further.
04 January 2010
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
A Happy New Year to all, wishing you all a successful and prosperous 2010.
Thin markets conditions into the year-end guaranteed a whippy and volatile end to trading in currency markets in 2009 which saw the USD taking a breather from its strong December rally. GBP ended the year riding a bid wave amid strong fixing demand and firmer nationwide house prices (+5.9% y/y, +0.5% m/m) which helped push EURGBP down towards its 200-day MA
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