Forex
30 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
Here we take a look at highlighted event risks for the rest of the week as a new month gets under way tomorrow. The RBA is coming right up in the Asian session and offers plenty of interest due to split market anticipation of a rate hike.
30 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
Here we have a look at the degree to which the "Dubai shock" has affected the various global risk factors that feed into the USD carry trade.
30 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
Market trying to figure out whether to brush off the dust from last week's Dubai shock, which continues to rumble through emerging markets. A key rate setting meeting is on tap tonight from the RBA, as the market is relatively evenly split on whether the RBA Is set to hike rates. A busy week for US data also lies ahead.
30 November 2009
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
Stock market futures are higher and commodities are also crawling back after it was confirmed that Dubai World will receive much-needed help. We therefore have a “buy-on-dips” stance today.
30 November 2009
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
Holiday-thinned markets endured a roller-coaster ride in the closing stages of last week with the headlines surrounding the standstill on debt repayments by Dubai World promoting a broader risk aversion trade – whacking equities and supporting both the dollar and bonds.
27 November 2009
Andrew Arnold, Trading Floor Editor
Following the negative news about Dubai, we provide below some information regarding the aggregate European exposure to the UAE using BIS data (based on consolidated and ultimate risk basis).
The UK is the European economy that has the largest exposure to the UAE with around USD50bn of outstanding loans as of June 2009, more than half the total European exposure.
27 November 2009
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
Dubai's debt problems are having a negative impact on markets, but the effects have been worsened because of the thin Thanksgiving trading. It does not make sense that this story should serve as a trigger for a real turnaround.
26 November 2009
David Karsbøl, Chief Economist, Saxo Bank
The market is in “pull-back mode” after the USD broke key supports vs. JPY and EUR on Wednesday. The reason is probably Thanksgiving and the thin and spiky market conditions towards the weekend. We will be careful and not read too much from the technical developments in this time span, but here are things as we see them:
26 November 2009
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
Our stance today is a “sell-on-rallies”, since we need some consolidation and since traders would be reluctant to break important levels on thin Thanksgiving liquidity.
25 November 2009
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
The FOMC minutes showed that it is forecasting 9.5% unemployment rate in 2010. The yield curve shifted lower since everybody knows that is not going to happen and that action revealed that monetary policy will remain lax in all of 2010.
25 November 2009
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
Once again the risk “scare” that was a major feature of the Asian session yesterday proved fleeting and both the European and US sessions reverted back to broad-based dollar selling.
24 November 2009
Mads Koefoed, Macro Strategist, Saxo Bank
The US has just released its first revision to its third quarter GDP report, and it came in line with consensus expectations of 2.8% and thus slightly below our forecast of 3.0%. The revised 2.8% GDP QoQ growth can be ascribed first and foremost to a larger than expected downward revision of personal consumption. Our personal consumption forecast of 3.3% (consensus: 3.2%) was 0.3%-point above the realised number. In addition, the contributions from non-residential investment and net exports were both revised down as we argued in the preview.
24 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
USDJPY bearing down on major support levels, hasn't closed a trading week this low since 1995. US Treasury auctions today and tomorrow likely to determine the JPY's direction from here.US Consumer Confidence next major data point in focus.
24 November 2009
Mads Koefoed, Macro Strategist, Saxo Bank
Later today (24 November), the US will release the first revision to its third quarter GDP report. Following a better than expected initial estimate of 3.5% (Saxo Bank: 3.6% vs. consensus: 3.2%) we expect GDP to be revised down to 3.0% (consensus: 2.8%) while Personal Consumption is expected to be revised slightly lower to 3.3% (consensus: 3.2%) from 3.4% in the first report.
Two reasons lead the way in our downward revision: the deterioration in the trade balance and a weaker bounce in investment than expected initially, specifically non-residential investment. In addition, we recognize the argument floating around that the initial report suffers from a so-called large company bias.
24 November 2009
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
After a heavy sell-off in the Shanghai Composite and AUD and NZD, we recommend to sell stocks on rallies today. Evidence: Treasuries are making new highs and 10-year BE inflation rates are down.
24 November 2009
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
A combination of earlier dovish Fed comments and strong US economic data releases helped to pin the dollar down after its slide during the Asian session yesterday. Existing home sales in October showed a phenomenal jump from the previous month, up 10.1% following a revised 8.8% jump the previous month.
23 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
The risk rally faded in the early US hours, though the pullback in risk was relatively less sharp in currencies. Lots of economic data in focus tomorrow.
23 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
AUDUSD has coming flying off of Friday's low after teasing the market with a false break of the long established rising trendline. Here we have a look at the levels that are the last hope for the bears.
23 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
Risk rally suddenly back in full gear after last week's attempts to disrupt the trend. End of month trade could be in play early this week with US holiday-shortened week. Euro is the strongest at the moment vs. the USD.
23 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
Saxo Bank FX Monthly – November 2009
The last month finally saw a relatively significant pause in the risk rally that has flourished since March of this year, aside from the month of consolidation in June.
The consolidation across markets in late October – whether in equities and the correlated pause in the weak USD trend – was fairly sharp, but only lasted a little over a week (from the top in the equity really, at least) before the markets made a renewed charge for recent highs in equities and other risk markets.
23 November 2009
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
Gold is making new highs and Asian shares are generally higher. AUD and NZD reversing (higher) over the weekend. The S&P 500 future is also higher. All in all, the market still looks to be embracing risk and our stance today is still a “buy-on-dips” towards S&P500 key support at 1084
23 November 2009
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
The dollar enjoyed a second session of respite from the relentless selling of late as the move in risk aversion that had been seen in Asia on Friday extended across to the US session. We saw tests of critical levels in some currency pairs and the question on everyone’s lips was whether this 2-day dollar rally marked a paradigm shift in market sentiment or whether it was merely profit-taking and those players that had enjoyed the past six months taking their cash from the table and banking it.
20 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
In this article, we discuss a new Carry Trade Index we have created to model the inputs driving the USD carry trade. We will regularly revisit this index as it seems to show some promise in telling us when adding to carry trades is justified, and when it may not be.
20 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
AUDUSD finally broke the longstanding trendline stretching back to March of this year. EURUSD is so far hanging on to the recent support area by the skin of its teeth. Interesting head and shoulders formation developing in NZDJPY. No economic event risks out of the US for the rest of the day as we try to understand the nature of this sell-off in risk.
20 November 2009
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
After Thursday's sell-off in risk we had some rebound during the Asian session overnight that will spillover into Europe. With no important data out today we expect a quiet day in markets.
20 November 2009
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
Another session of general risk aversion trading yesterday as the dollar continued to edge higher and JPY crosses approached key support levels. The activity most mostly confined to the early stages though with the latter part spent in lazy ranges. Notably EURJPY survived another attempt on the 200-day MA for the fourth time in as many months while gold bounced off 55-hour MA on the short-term charts.
19 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
The USD was pushed back from its strongest levels of the day in New York as the bears growl faded after the initial half hour of equity trading in New York. EURUSD continues to trade in its tight range, though the commodity currencies still look somewhat weak.
19 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
The USD and especially the JPY are having yet another go at a rally here. This time it is looking a bit more serious, as the formerly strongest currencies like AUD and NZD are now the weakest, and are “leading” the charge to the downside. EURJPY is trading at critical support.
19 November 2009
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
Yesterday’s session was predominantly spent with the dollar trading in established ranges. US data releases were mixed, with CPI edging marginally above expectations while housing starts and building permits disappointed, underlining the fragile state of that particular sector. St Louis Fed’s Bullard commented that the Fed’s tightening campaign may not start until the first half of 2012, (or 2-1/2 to 3 years after the end of previous two recessions) and the recent memory of the housing bubble may push the Fed to hike rates more quickly than in the past .
18 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
A relatively quiet session with little to draw conclusions from. Divergence in CAD and AUD is interesting relative to risk appetite of late. We take a look at USDCAD technicals once again today.
18 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
GBPUSD has been a treacherous currency pair for the trend trader of late. Today's reaction to a supposedly dovish BoE has GBPUSD showing signs of yet another rejection of a false break higher, as well as a potential evening star formation - yet again. A very interesting trendline lies not far to the downside for the pair.
18 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
Another day brings another direction for the greenback. Today we try to have a look at the factors that are pulling the dollar in opposite direction and causing all of the confusion as the USD churns within a range. We also have a look at today's interesting BoE minutes and note that the US 10-year yield is trading at critical levels, a fact that could be pivotal across markets.
18 November 2009
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
The dollar pendulum once again swung into bullish territory yesterday with Bernanke’s comments on the dollar on Monday being followed up by similar comments from the Fed’s Lacker overnight. Lacker restated that the Fed would pay close attention to the value of the dollar to the extent that it has implications for the dual mandate of inflation and growth.
17 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
This attempt at a USD turnaround draws out for another session with nothing conclusive. Intresting divergence in USD and risk appetite.
17 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
USD rallies on Obama's mention of the yuan and despite resilient asset markets - a one off curiousity or a sign of something more interesting developing here? We have a look at the techcnical proving grounds for today's USD move as well.
17 November 2009
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
Risk is still on. Expect a little profit taking here on the opening of European markets, but risk assets will most likely reverse and trade higher during today.
17 November 2009
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
Fed Chairman Bernanke’s speech on the US economic outlook upset the apple cart of a broader risk rally yesterday as his speech contained specific references to the dollar for the first time since 2008. He commented that the Fed was “attentive to changes in the value of the dollar” and added that Fed policy will be formulated to guard against risks to the dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. The market reaction was a nervous kneejerk higher for the dollar though this was short-lived after he reiterated that rates would be kept low for an extended period.
16 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
Bernanke cause considerable volatility with mention of the USD and then a rather dour outlook on the US economy. US rates have fallen yet again - to the lowest level in smonths. This supported a move lower in USDJPY and other JPY crosses.
16 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
A new week kicks off with the bubble seemingly back in full inflation mode, though currencies are still trading in a small range below last week's extremes in USD weakness.
16 November 2009
Mads Koefoed, Macro Strategist, Saxo Bank
US Retail Sales for October, out at 13:30 (GMT) today, could provide a little surprise to the upside. We are looking for a number close to 1.2%, a touch higher than the market consensus of around 0.9%.
Higher vehicle sales for October are expected to make the difference, together with stronger gas prices (petrol) reflecting higher crude oil during the period.
16 November 2009
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
The Asian session showed risk appetite is back in town. Equities going higher and AUD and EUR trading higher vs. USD, JPY and CHF. Today's possible trigger is US Retail Sales at 1.30 (GMT). We believe that it could surprise positively.
16 November 2009
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
As we have seen recently, any rebound in the dollar proves to be short-lived and viewed as an opportunity to short the dollar at better levels. This latest case was no exception and Friday we saw a reversal in the dollar’s trend that had been in place for just two days.
13 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
Dollar bulls were shown the door today as the market's twisted logicdictates that poor Michigan confidence data is good for risk, and risk is still king when it comes to the greenback.
13 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
USD needs to see some follow thorugh stronger today to keep the rally on track. JPY is pulling stronger across the board, trumping the USD for the moment.
13 November 2009
David Karsbøl, Chief Economist, Saxo Bank
The US Trade Balance for September was much worse than expected, dropping almost $6bn despite the USD trade weighted index falling around 2% in September.
13 November 2009
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
German GDP was out this morning and came in line with expectations. A lot of other countries in the Eurozone are struggling to follow Germany out of the recession so EC GDP could disappoint slightly.
13 November 2009
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
The dollar had a good day at the office yesterday as some significant technical levels held and the markets ran out of momentum. Among the various indicators for a dollar retracement were EURUSD’s inability to hold the 1.50 mark, struggling momentum on the S&P above 1,100, oil’s rally stalling at $80.0 and gold facing a similar fate above 1,120.
12 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
USD making waves after making impressive gains today. We have a look at the technical implications of today's move, especially focusing on the potential for AUD weakness.
12 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
The greenback is trying to pull itself off the mat after reaching a very interesting pivot zone across the board yesterday. Technicals look interesting for a turnaround, though momentume is a bit tough to come by at the moment in risk markets, and where is the catalyst?
12 November 2009
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
Fake-break above 1101 in S&P500 and Break-Even Inflation Rates are down 3 bps. after a big rally in the past two weeks. EURUSD struggling to close above 1.50. We could see retracement today.
11 November 2009
David Karsbøl, Chief Economist, Saxo Bank
The risk trade is still on and the positive sentiment continues.
12 November 2009
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
With the NY session expected to be quiet due to the Veterans Day holiday, it was left to GBP to steal the limelight during the European session. The Bank of England’s quarterly inflation report continued the tradition of inspiring violent knee-jerk reactions of late and the dovish content sent GBP crashing.
11 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
Most USD crosses at an interesting technical crossroads after the day's action, though there was little volatility ouside of GBP's convulsions.
11 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
Australian Employment Report for October due up shortly - a look at the surprsie potential of this number and how the market may react.
11 November 2009
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
The lack of data inputs in the US session yesterday kept currencies within recent ranges, pivoting around familiar levels. Indeed, when the Asian session started this morning, levels were strangely familiar to the previous day.
10 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
Not a memorable day today as volatliliy remained low for most of the day. GBP has been on the move, however, and we have the key quarterly inflation report up tomorrow from the BoE. Has NOK moved less than it should be moving after today's low inflation?
10 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
Will currencie continue to power higher vs. the USD like yesterday or has the market gotten a bit ahead of itself. JPY crosses take a pause to consider developments as key US treasury auction gets underway today.
10 November 2009
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
Risk is on. Again. The lack of exit signals from the G20 regarding loose monetary policy spurred risk appetite in the broader markets. It will most likely continue.
10 November 2009
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
Ratings agency Fitch commented that the UK was at most risk among the major economies of losing its AAA status, with Germany being the least. GBP stood no chance and was quickly through stops below 1.67
09 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
US equities stormed higher, though most of the damage to the dollar was done in the Asian and European sessions today. JPY crosses remain high despite support in US bond market after strong 3-year auction results today.
09 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
FX continues to trade on the shaky logic of the liquidity bubble, where only good news in the US can stop the risk willingness in world markets, it seems. A sparsely populated economic calendar this week.
09 November 2009
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
Friday's employment and customer credit data was horrible, but the markets kept their enthusiasm. There is no important macro data or company announcements today, so we expect a quiet Monday. Buy on dips is the order of the day.
09 November 2009
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
The major focus into the end of last week was the US non-farm payroll and unemployment data. The data on the headline was worse than expected with the number of non-farm jobs lost coming in at 190k versus an expected 175k but was still better than previous month, even after a strong positive revision to that month’s data of +44k. It was the unemployment headlines that stole the headlines though, if not the market reaction, with the rate ballooning to 10.2%, far worse that the 9.9% expected and in double digits for the first time since mid-1983.
06 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
Ugly rise in the US employment rate failed to keep risk appetite on the mat for long as the bulls attempt another rally early in New York.
06 November 2009
Nick Beecroft, Senior Markets Consultant
I believe the asymmetric situation re US$ interest rates means there is a good chance that the US$ may strengthen on an extreme NFP number-either way-say better than -100k or worse than -250k.
06 November 2009
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
The positive sentiment could continue ahead of the US labour market data today, but the market is likely to be disappointed as the Unemployment Rate has a high likelihood of being released at 10%.
06 November 2009
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
The second phase of central bank meetings occurred overnight and there was a hint that both the BOE and ECB were adopting a slightly more optimistic approach on their respective economies, though this did not stop the BOE from announcing a £25 bln increase to its quantitative easing programme.
05 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
EURJPY rally stopped yesterday at an interesting level and we have clear lines in the sand to the upside and downside now for EURJPY ahead of the US employment report tomorrow. JPY volatility really seems to be heating up of late.
05 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
Trichet rather hawkish relative to expectations, but tomorrow's US employment report perhaps dampening volatility for today.
05 November 2009
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05 November 2009
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
BoE is out today (expected to hike the asset purchases to £225B from £175B). That should be an additional negative for GBP and could besides the weak USD be an additional support for commodities.
05 November 2009
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
The main event overnight was the FOMC announcement and the Fed kept its central message unchanged ie “economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low rates for an extended period”. There was more clarification as to what these economic conditions are – low rates of resource utilization and subdued inflation trends with stable expectations. There were also plans to cut the mortgage backed securities purchase programme by $25b to $175b but this was seen more due to lack of supply than a policy shift.
04 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
AUDUSD rally looks a bit strange relative to the interest rate spreads - here we chart AUDUSD vs. those spreads and ponder the direciton of most potential volatility post FOMC>
04 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
We take a stab at what the market is expecting from today's FOMC statement and how the market may react. Hawkishness certainly appears to be the "surprise side".
04 November 2009
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
Positive sentiment from US Vehicle Sales and Factory Orders and ISM Manufacturing should continue into today’s US session, but the ISM Non-Manufacturing could be the party-killer.
04 November 2009
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
The gold bars took on an extra sparkle overnight as the commodity powered some 3% higher amid a (somewhat delayed) reaction to news that the Indian central bank had purchased 200 metric tons of gold from the IMF as part of the latter’s plans to boost funding for various programmes. Valued at $6.7 bln, the deal was the largest purchase by a central bank in 30 years.
03 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
Massive move in gold to record new highs sets the tone in the US session as the market pulled back somewhat from its recent higss.
03 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
Gold spiking higher today, as are crude oil and the Canadian dollar. Someone is placing significant bets on commodities ahead of tomorrow's FOMC.
03 November 2009
David Karsbøl, Chief Economist, Saxo Bank
The model has turned “Outright Bullish” – meaning that the improvement in business activity is broad and clear. It has to be admitted, though, that it happens from a very low starting point.
The asset allocation has increased dramatically towards commodities (45%) and decreased exposure to stocks (30% MSCI World and 5% MSCI EM). Now only 20% capital in Bonds. Return for October was -0.44% due primarily to the exposure to stocks.
03 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
USD maintaining strength ahead of tomorrow's key FOMC meeting as risk aversion dominates for the moment. AUD weaker as currency strength now clearly an input into RBA's monetary policy trajectory.
03 November 2009
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
ISM Manufacturing showed a noteworthy improvement yesterday, but it only accounts for 1/10 of the US economy. Look for today's factory orders from the US.
03 November 2009
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
The economic data overnight impressed and there was a general attempt to put risk back onto books, though this proved to be not particularly convincing with a number of clouds helping to cap the euphoria.
02 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
Today's action highlighting the importance of the week's pivot points as the USD has largely survived a challenge of these levels in today's trade in several key pairs. Here's a rundown of a few major crosses where the weekly pivot point has come into play today. The weekly pivot levels definitely bear watching this week.
02 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
The US ISM Manufacturing data today triggered quite a reaction - but the reaction was most likely not to the headline figure, but to the development in the employment sub-index. Here we have a look at this subindex's history and the implications for today's reading.
02 November 2009
David Karsbøl, Chief Economist, Saxo Bank
FX Portfolio Return for October was 0.31% (from close on the 30th of September to close on the 30th of October). The November portfolio is reducing, but still long, AUD (29%) and NZD (24%). The major short positions are USD (32%), CAD (24%) and GBP (20%).
02 November 2009
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
Central Banks in the crosshairs this week. Volatility from last week continues into today's action. JPY crosses gyrate, GBP swoons as pivotal week gets under way. US ISM Manufacturing on tap.
02 November 2009
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
A real whipsaw in markets Thursday/Friday. Our take: The market isn’t too impressed by the US GDP figures on Thursday. They looked good on the surface, but showed discomforting details on closer scrutiny. Disposable Income is down and the impact from CFC is temporary. Government spending was again going through the roof. All in all: unsustainable and not showing a real recovery.
02 November 2009
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
It was a disappointing close to the month on Friday for those looking to grasp risk by the horns after Thursday”s US GDP release. All the positive sentiment evaporated and Wall St gave back all the gains, and some more, though there was no one specific news item or event that triggered the heavy aversion to risk.
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